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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick 05/05/18

Joe Puetz-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Cardinals will go for their fourth win in a row they play host to the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. The matchup begins at 2:15 p.m. ET and you can catch it on either WLS or FSMW.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Chicago (+120) is hosting this game as the underdog against St. Louis (-130) and Vegas has the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 8.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds coming in at Cubs +1.5 runs (-175) and Cardinals +-1.5 runs (+155).

La Liga

The Cubs have gone 16-13 SU this year and are 13-15 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.0 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season and 1.1 units ATS. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are 18-12 SU and 14-15 ATS. The team’s gained 2.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 2.5 units ATS.

Cardinals games have an over/under record of 13-14-2 so far in 2018. The Cubs have an over/under record of 12-16.

Right-hander Tyler Chatwood will get the nod for the visiting Cubbies. Chatwood is 2-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 27 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 3.86 ERA against St. Louis this year.

The Cardinals are handing the ball to righty Luke Weaver (2-2, 5.17 ERA), who’s got 30 punchouts and 14 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.37. Weaver is 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 13.50 ERA in one start against Chicago this year.

St. Louis’ pitching staff has given up 3.6 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have a 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 19 games against divisional foes, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 2.79 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.18.

St. Louis’ hitters have put up 4.5 runs per outing, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .193/.264/.331 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Cardinals’ hitters have been led by Tommy Pham, who is slashing .327/.441/.541 with five home runs, 14 RBIs, 24 runs and six stolen bases. Pham seemed to have some trouble hitting righty pitching at home last season. Across 183 such plate appearances, he slashed .257/.377/.355 (compared to his overall season line of .306/.411/.520).

In the visiting dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.91 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.32 K/9. The bullpen has managed an outstanding ERA of just 2.57, along with a WHIP of 1.36.

The Cubs offense has slashed .244/.323/.403 on its way to 4.8 runs scored per game this year, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Chicago’s hitters have been spearheaded by Javier Baez, who is hitting .287/.336/.620 with seven home runs, 26 RBIs and 21 runs scored.

The Cardinals just snuck away with the previous game in this series by a score of three runs to two.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The over has hit in only one of Chicago’s last seven games.

The Cubs have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Cardinals have hit 10 over their last 10.

Chicago has posted 16.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 13.2 over its last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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