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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick 07/28/18

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs will head south to Busch Stadium to face their divisional rival St. Louis Cardinals. The matchup will be nationally televised on Fox Sports One and the opening pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Odds

Both teams have equal -105 moneyline odds and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at +105 for the over and -125 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at +140 for the Cubs -1.5 runs and -160 for the Cardinals +1.5.

The Cardinals are 51-51 straight up (SU) and 50-52 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 10.9 units for moneyline bettors and 6.5 units (ATS). The Cubs are 60-42 SU and have gone 53-49 ATS. In total, the team’s accumulated 2.0 units for moneyline gamblers and 5.8 units ATS.

Cardinals games have had an over/under record of 48-50-4 in 2018. Chicago has an over/under record of 49-52-1.

The left-handed Jose Quintana is projected to start for the visiting Cubs. Quintana (9-6, 3.87 ERA) has recorded 93 strikeouts in 104.2 innings so far. He’s 1-2 with 13 strikeouts and a 2.25 ERA against St. Louis this year (three starts).

The Cardinals are putting the ball in the hands of righty Miles Mikolas (10-3, 2.82 ERA), who’s got 89 strikeouts and 22 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.07. Mikolas is 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA over two starts against Chicago this year.

St. Louis’ pitching staff has given up 4.4 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.46, a WHIP of 1.24 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.0. The bullpen has a 4.72 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 52 divisional games, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.45 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.94.

St. Louis’ hitters have produced 4.5 runs per contest, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .234/.320/.366 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

The Cardinals’ batters have been led by left fielder Marcell Ozuna and first baseman Jose Martinez. Ozuna is hitting .261/.306/.371 with 10 home runs, 51 RBIs and 39 runs scored, while Martinez’s line sits at .295/.358/.464 with 13 homers, 57 RBIs and 35 runs.

In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.04 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 7.60 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.29, along with a WHIP of 1.38 and a K-per-9 of 8.84.

The Cubs offense has slashed .266/.349/.423 on its way to 5.1 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Chicago’s hitters have been led by second baseman Javier Baez and outfielder Albert Almora Jr.. Baez is slashing .294/.326/.550 with 19 home runs, 74 RBIs, 63 runs and 19 stolen bases, while Almora Jr. (.316/.353/.432) has produced four homers, 30 RBIs and 50 runs scored.

The Cubs have lost 6.2 units and are 38-39 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 38 of those games, compared to 38 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Cardinals have lost 3.9 units and are 13-14 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 11 that went under.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Cardinals, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

The over has hit in four of Chicago’s last seven games.

Chicago fielders have two errors over the last 10 games, compared to nine errors for St. Louis over its last 10.

The Cubs have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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