Jon Lester (4-6, 3.74 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (44-36) go up against John Lackey (6-5, 3.30 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (53-28) in the first of a four-game division series at Wrigley Field. The game starts at 8:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Jul. 6 and will air on FSN-MW, WGN and ESPN.
Lester has a 2.89 ERA and a 1-1 record in his career against the Cardinals, but faces a strong St. Louis offense that’s hitting .260 on the year. Kris Bryant (.279, 44 Rs, 12 HRs, 49 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one stolen base. In his pitching opportunities against the Cubs, Lackey is 2-1 with a 2.34 ERA. He gets a less-than-stellar Chicago offense that’s batting just .240.
Chicago, a -123 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against St. Louis. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is presently unavailable. When playing as the favorite, the Cubs have a 26-20 record and overall money line at +312. They have a 17-17 record SU and are 11-8 as favorite within their division. Chicago has been struggling as of late. In the last 10 games, Chicago has only averaged 2.3 runs per game compared to the 4.0 they’ve averaged on the season. Transitioning to the Chicago defense and pitching staff, teams routinely struggle to score runs against the Cubs, who allow only 3.7 runs per game. The Cubs lead the league in WHIP at 1.17. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the NL with 8.7 strikeouts per game.
Across the field, the Cardinals have a record of 9-11 when they are the underdog and are +1,926 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 6-4 SU and have a poor 0-1 record when they were an underdog to win. The Cardinals are a problem for opposing batters, sporting an NL-low 2.62 ERA this season. They also allow just 8.2 hits per game, good for fourth in the NL. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in the NL with an average of 8.1 strikeouts per game.
The Cardinals had the upper hand against the Cubs in their previous nine games this season, earning a 7-2 record. The Cubs will take on a right-hander (Lackey) in this game and have a 36-32 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The left-handed Lester will take the mound against the Cardinals, who have a 7-11 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Under
Notes
Chicago earned its 11th shutout of the season in its last game. St. Louis has been shut out six times this season.
The Cubs are 10-4 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 6-5 in such matchups.
The Cardinals are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Cubs have a record of 23-22 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 36-9. The Cubs have a 29-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Chicago and St. Louis both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. Chicago sits at 24th with 314 runs this season and St. Louis ranks 22nd with 320.
Ranking 12th, St. Louis is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 246 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at fifth with 270.
When the Cubs hit at least one home run, they are 27-15, well-matched with the Cardinals who are 32-11 when hitting one or more homers.
