As part of our weekly series, Get More Sports recently caught up with former NFL player Chris Gronkowski. Every week during the 2018 season, we’ll produce an exclusive Q&A with Chris whose experience, familiarity and connections within the league, its coaches and its players allow him to provide unparalleled insight and analysis.
The information provided in this series can be incredibly valuable to any sports bettor, which is why this is must-read material every week.
In this week’s Q&A, Chris Gronkowski discusses this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks, gambling picks and more.
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GMS: In Episode 10 of The Gronkcast, you discussed the value of home-field advantage. Bookmakers would say that home field is traditionally worth three points to a spread. In some places it’s less and in others, such as Seattle, it is more. From your playing experience, name two stadiums you think offer the best home-field edge.
Related: Q&A’s with Chris and Glenn Gronkowski
Gronk: If you are looking for a home field advantage, then head to Denver. When I first went to Denver to play, I immediately felt the difference with the thinner air. Practices were rough until you get used to the air, and Denver is not as cold as everyone thinks it is. Our camp practices were hot making it very tough to adapt. Denver’s home field advantage is as great as any that you will ever get. The crowd is loud and into the game as well, making Denver one of the best home team advantage fields in the NFL.
Playing in Green Bay was rough. I played in Green Bay and this game still stands out in my mind because we got blown out. Traveling into Green Bay was rough and the weather was ice cold. If you aren’t used to playing in freezing cold weather, it is tough to do. The ball is rock hard and your hands are freezing. Lambeau was a tough place to play and everyone in the city was repping the team hard. The fans didn’t make a sound when the Packers were on offense and then would go insane when the Packers were on defense. A great performance from the fans and freezing cold weather make for a great home field advantage.
GMS: And how about two stadiums you think have the worst home-field advantage.
Gronk: The worst home field advantage for me was Dallas with the new stadium. The fans were not into the game and there were so many distractions in the stadium. Everyone watches the big screen because it is so big and in your face, I would even watch the big screen from the sidelines. I think most of the fans were there just to check out the stadium and didn’t care so much for the game. The stadium is also a dome, so visiting teams have nothing to worry about weather wise. The stadium was always comfortable and inviting for visiting teams.
San Diego was also another stadium that had very little home-field advantage. The stadium was never filled and fans didn’t show up. The weather in San Diego was always pretty nice so you didn’t have to worry about any harsh weather. Without the crowd noise, away teams don’t have too much to worry about.
GMS: Your NFL picks have been less than stellar this year. How do you plan on righting the ship? Will you adjust your strategy?
Gronk: Picking teams this year has been rough. Survivor pools have gotten crushed from a lot of big upsets. With all the rookie quarterbacks and first time starters, it has been such a crazy and hard to predict season. Going into Week 7, the good teams and players are starting to separate themselves and I should be able to make some more accurate picks. Also, picking games early in the week has never been easy. Injury reports and line changes leading up to game day make a big difference when making picks. I have also been the most successful when taking half line picks. It’s a lot easier to get a feel for a game when you watch the first half and wait until the half line to get your picks in. Sometimes a certain player is just dominating and cannot be stopped, and half lines are great for jumping on a line when you are able to spot a great opportunity.
GMS: You have sat through countless hours of watching film. How important is it for a football handicapper to watch as many games as possible?
Gronk: Game film is huge. You are going to see the strengths and weaknesses of every player on the field. As an offensive player, the coaches were looking for the weaknesses of the opposing defenses. We would attack these players or schemes and run similar plays that other teams had success with.
By watching film, if you are able to spot a weakness of one team that the other team may be able to expose, then it would be a good time to jump on that game.
The problem with spotting a potential weakness on film is that every team also self scouts. Every team has scouts that are putting scouting reports together on their own team. Game plans and schemes can greatly change from game to game, but the players — for the most part — stay the same. When watching film, look for individual player matchups that may be favorable and these could pay off big.
GMS: What is your honest assessment of the current form of Eli Manning? And do you think he’ll retire next year, be a Giant or be on another team?
Gronk: I have never been able to get a read on Eli Manning. The two years they won the Super Bowl, they just hardly made the playoffs and they went on two miracle Super Bowl runs. Without those two Super Bowls, I think Eli would have been out of New York a long time ago. I don’t think he will be back on the Giants next year. There is no way the Giants are willing to pay Eli’s $5 million dollar roster bonus for 2019.
GMS: You’ve had a few weeks to watch Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen (now injured) and Sam Darnold. Which rookie quarterback has been the most impressive in your eyes and which needs the most work?
Gronk: Baker Mayfield looks like the best in the bunch. He has been impressive despite the Browns still losing games. He has been able to get the ball out of his hands quick and has really picked up the offense quick. His ability to read defenses this early in an NFL career is a huge asset and he will continue to get better every year. When Baker Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor, the Browns offense was sparked.
Out of all the rookie quarterbacks, Josh Rosen looks to need the most work. He is also the least mobile out of the four and hasn’t been able to extend plays like the other quarterbacks have been able to do. This significantly hurts a young quarterback and shows as the Cardinals have the worst offense in the NFL. After the big loss against the Broncos, it’s apparent that Rosen needs to able to handle pressure better and will see a lot of pressure and blitzes from this point forward. If he is not able to improve, the Cardinals need to go back to the drawing board and bring Bradford back in and give Rosen some time to learn the playbook and mature. The way this year is going for them, this would be the best option. With the firing of offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, it is a good time to put Rosen back on the bench and give him a year to learn behind a veteran quarterback.
GMS: There is talk that the Chargers are revising their revenue goals from $400 millions to $150 million, which has owners and the league concerned. Do you think L.A. can sustain two teams? If they were to move, what city might be a good landing spot for the Chargers?
Gronk: The Chargers need to find a home. I don’t think L.A. is the right move for them. L.A. is just an hour from where they were in San Diego and they could not fill a stadium even during big games. I don’t see this changing, especially when the Rams are already in L.A. It would be interesting to see an NFL team land near a big college market like Columbus, Ohio or Oklahoma City. I also think that Texas could also have another team in either San Antonio or El Paso.
GMS: The Bills are starting Derek Anderson this week instead of Nathan Peterman. Do you think this is a good decision?
Gronk: There is no good decision right now in Buffalo for the quarterback position. Derek Anderson has been in Buffalo for a week, how much of the playbook could he possibly have picked up? The playbook will have to very basic for this week’s game but Anderson is a veteran quarterback that should be able to put on a decent performance. I have no idea why Peterman is still on the roster. What is the game plan for Peterman? The Bills went out and grabbed a veteran quarterback to replace Peterman so why not free up the roster spot and bring in someone you would actually play in a game? I would expect to see Peterman cut once Josh Allen is healthy.
