Atop this week’s three-day fight marathon will be perhaps the greatest fight of all time the middleweight division has ever seen. Chris Weidman, the UFC middleweight champion known for dethroning long-time kingpin Anderson Silva, will defend his belt against one of the most skilled and spectacular middleweights to come onto the scene in Luke Rockhold. Some like to label this bout as a “west coast vs. east coast” match up; while this may be true (Weidman being from New York and Rockhold being from California), this match up goes deeper than just geographical symbolism. Here is a detailed analysis of Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold, with a prediction at the end.
Chris Weidman (-133) vs. Luke Rockhold (+113)
The Champ
Weidman represents everything involving grit, mental toughness, and fortitude. His fighting style is made up of flawless fundaments, knockout power, strong grappling, relentless aggression, and physical toughness. He is what I refer to as a “meat-and-potatoes” fighter (not a negative connotation, it is arguably what has made him so successful) – Weidman avoids the flamboyant techniques, and instead opts for effective attacks.
Weidman’s striking may not look aesthetically pleasing, but behind his stiff jab, clean cross, and extending left hook (which he has used to great effect), he has out-struck nearly all of his opponents. Furthermore, his heavy pressure overwhelms opponents who need time to think and set up attacks, and forces them to engage. Weidman is known for his demand of the floor space as well – cutting off the Octagon against circling opponents, and forcing them into exchanges on his own terms. Once again, Weidman is not a flashy striker, but he throws meaningful, fundamentally-sound strikes, and (due to his knockout power) is a serious threat against anyone on the feet.
Then you get to Weidman’s strong suit – grappling. It will be interesting to see if Weidman (a very physically strong middleweight) will lose any of his aforementioned strength advantages due to recent changes in physique. Weidman cleaned up his diet for his title defense against Rockhold, and is slimmer than he has ever been in the UFC. Even if you knock off some strength, Weidman is among the very best when it comes to grappling. It’s Weidman’s strong wrestling base that allows him to secure an average 3.75 takedowns every fight. While his takedown accuracy is just higher than 50%, he does a great job of turning failed takedown attempts into openings to throw effective strikes. When he does get on top, he uses that strong base to remain on top and punish his opponents with ground and pound. Submissions are also on the menu for Weidman, and he is so confident in his ability to retain position that he won’t hesitate to go for the finish. Weidman has never been put on his back which means that if it’s a grappling scenario, it’s likely Weidman will be the one on top dropping bombs and looking for submissions.
The Challenger
Coming out of the American Kickboxing Academy, one can easily expect Rockhold to be as prepared as ever for this title fight with Chris Weidman. On the recent UFC 194 Embedded videos, Rockhold has been mentioning how serious he is about this, and that many are mistaken to count him out due to his peculiar personality. Why is this important? Because it means the best Luke Rockhold is going to show up Saturday, and the best Luke Rockhold (not the one that got surprised with a spinning wheel kick against Vitor Belfort) is easily one of the most skilled fighters on the UFC’s roster.
On the feet, Luke Rockhold perfectly displays his care-free personality with his relaxed striking style. One can’t be fooled by Rockhold’s almost-lazy demeanor though, because he throws with fight-ending power. Rockhold relies on quick, reflex-driven body and head movement to get out of sticky situations, and almost always counters with a check right hook while moving away, or an elbow on the inside (like he utilized against Lyoto Machida). When attacking, Luke goes to his regular left kick to the body or head. By mixing up body and head attacks regularly, he makes his opponents get into a guessing game – one slip up by his opponent, and it’s a devastating consequence. Overall, Luke’s striking is much smoother than Weidman’s, and he has a few key techniques that he goes to often whereas Weidman resorts to more simplistic boxing combinations. Rockhold is great on the offensive, but is potent on the defense as well. If there’s one knock against Rockhold, it’s that he relies a little too much on his head movement which has failed him in the past.
It’s still up for debate whether or not Rockhold is a better grappler than he is a striker – if this is true, then Weidman could be out-matched Saturday night. While Rockhold almost always chooses to stand with his opponents, what we’ve seen from him on the ground has been spectacular. He clearly has a knack for finding the submission in whatever position he’s in (as seen by his unorthodox inverted triangle/kimura against Tim Boetsch). Rockhold is also one of the largest middleweights on the roster, and his athleticism helps him move and control opponents on the mat in ways that can’t seem to be matched. The only part of his grappling game that lacks is his offensive wrestling; he can sweep, land punishing strikes, and find submissions, but Rockhold is not a grinder who can take his opponent down time and time again as seen by his 33% takedown accuracy.
The Comparison
The stylistic analysis I just provided should give a clear representation of why Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold could be the greatest middleweight fight of all time. Anderson Silva had some interesting match ups throughout his career, but none of them were between two well-rounded studs who are as tested, as exciting, and as dangerous as Weidman and Rockhold are.
On the feet, I believe Chris Weidman is a bad match up for Rockhold. While Rockhold may be the smoother striker with a deeper arsenal, Weidman’s forward pressure, long reach, and knockout power are perfect weapons against Rockhold’s hands down, head movement-based defense. That being said, Weidman is in danger if he can’t force Rockhold on the back foot; if Rockhold starts to push forward on Weidman, he’s going to start throwing his left leg to regular effect, and it will only be a matter of time before Weidman can’t take the punishment. In the grappling department, Weidman should have the better wrestling and be able to take Rockhold down, but Rockhold’s size and athleticism will definitely prove difficult to overcome. Don’t expect Weidman to be taking Rockhold down at will; instead, it will have to be either a hard-earned takedown, or a well-timed shot off a kick.
The Verdict
All-in-all, this is a very evenly-matched fight that will come down to whoever can lead the dance on the feet. Rockhold’s offense is hard to discredit, but I believe Weidman’s aggressive style and Octagon control will continually put him in a position to land his long punches on a retreating Rockhold. I expect there to be a few ground exchanges, but Weidman will respect the submission savviness of Rockhold, and instead maintain dominant control – posturing up to strike whenever feasible. In the end, Weidman will avoid Rockhold’s grappling traps and lands the better shots on the feet en route to a decision victory. It will be hard-fought, and both guys will take severe damage from eachother’s strikes, but the champion will retain his belt.
The Pick: Chris Weidman via Unanimous Decision
