The Arizona Cardinals are going through some major changes. They’ll have a new coaching staff and a new quarterback, plus a new receiving corps outside of the immortal Larry Fitzgerald. Their new presumed slot receiver is Christian Kirk of Texas A&M, whom they selected 47th overall.
Christian's coming home!
Welcome to the squad, @ChristianDavon2! #CardsDraft pic.twitter.com/28zUYgNO0T
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) April 28, 2018
Kirk has been on NFL radars since he was one of the top high school prospects in the country when he committed to Texas A&M at the end of 2014. He was SEC Freshman of the Year in 2015 and named First-team All-SEC in 2016 and 2017. The talent is there, but the uncertain situation in Arizona is worrisome.
Reasons to Get Excited
Potential WR2 Targets
Both John Brown (Ravens) and Jaron Brown (Seahawks) have moved on. That leaves J.J. Nelson as the main obstacle to Kirk being Arizona’s second-best receiver. The departure of the two Browns frees up 125 targets or roughly 21 percent of Arizona’s 2017 pass attempts.
Should Kirk surpass Nelson and become a legitimate second receiver, it’s reasonable to expect 80 to 90 targets. That would put him in the same neighborhood as Jordy Nelson, Rishard Matthews, Danny Amendola and Eric Decker in 2017. Of course, he could easily overcome that.
Safety Valve
Specifically, he could overcome it because the Cardinals could use him often on short passes. None of their current quarterbacks (who we’ll cover later) are proven deep throwers. Kirk has solid hands and a frame (5-foot-11, 201 pounds) similar to a receiving running back. He’ll have chances to pick up yards after the catch and gets a boost in PPR leagues.
Return Game
Kirk was an excellent return man for the Aggies and is in line for return duties with the Cardinals. That obviously gives him a boost in return-yardage leagues, but also in standard leagues since most of them count return touchdowns. You won’t be able to count on those often, but it will give Kirk additional upside each week.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Uncertainty at Quarterback
The Cardinals signed Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon, then picked Josh Rosen in the first round. There’s no telling what to expect from this group, but it’s more than likely going to be negative in 2018. Bradford is average to above average when healthy, but we all know better than to count on that. Glennon looks more like a backup. Rosen is a rookie who just turned 21 in February. Given questions about his personality, there’s added risk on top of the typical rookie quarterback worries.
As the saying goes, when you draft a receiver, you also draft his quarterback. The options here aren’t too exciting. Fitzgerald will probably get his either way, but secondary receivers like Kirk could be left out.
New Coaching Staff
Arizona replaced the retired Bruce Arians with former Carolina defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Aside from one year as head coach at Savannah State, Wilks has always been a coordinator or position coach on the defensive side of the ball. We don’t know what kind of offensive identity he’ll craft for Arizona, but defensive-minded coaches typically like to run the ball.
It’s possible Wilks will completely hand the keys to their new offensive coordinator, former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy. McCoy has a great history with quarterbacks, but the last time we saw him he was fired by the Broncos mid-season when they had one of the least effective passing offenses in the league. Plus, McCoy had his best seasons with Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers at quarterback. He won’t get that level of play from any of Arizona’s options in 2018.
Third Option at Best
We mentioned Fitzgerald being Arizona’s top target, but we also can’t forget David Johnson. Johnson is presumably healthy and in line to try to duplicate his incredible 2016 season. Fitz and Johnson are clearly the top two options in Arizona, meaning Kirk’s best-case scenario is option three, barring injury.
Conclusion
Kirk deserves some attention in PPR leagues and is worth a late-round pick in standard leagues. He is, by all accounts, a tough, hardworking player who will get favorable reviews from coaches and teammates alike. His numbers in the SEC speak for themselves.
But he’ll have to beat out Fitzgerald, Johnson, and possibly Nelson for targets from quarterbacks who are less than trustworthy. For that reason, he’s one of the least attractive rookies worth drafting. But he is worth drafting, so snatch him up if you believe in the Cardinals.
