The Miami Ohio Redhawks will be looking to make it two in a row when they host the Cincinnati Bearcats for homecoming on Saturday night from Yager Field. The game is slated to begin on Saturday, September 16th at 8:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on the ESPN3 network. In this battle between state rivals, the Redhawks enter as a -5.5 favorite and the contest’s total sits at 47.5. Neither the line or the over/under has budged since it was presented to the public on Monday.
Both of these teams are trying to breach the .500 mark when they face each other on Saturday night. Miami Ohio lost their opener 26-31 against the Thundering Herd to kick-off their campaign then rebounded to defeat Austin Peay 31-10 at home.
Cincinnati also dispatched of Austin Peay in their first game of the season 26-14. In their second game, the Bearcats came out on the losing end against the Michigan Wolverines when they were defeated 14-36 in the Big House.
This game marks the 122nd time these two schools have played each other which makes the battle for the Victory Bell the oldest rivalry in college football history. Furthermore, Cincinnati has won the last eleven times these to programs have squared-off.
Cincinnati Bearcats (1-1)
Cincinnati quarterback Hayden Moore had a rough outing against the Wolverines last weekend. In that game, Moore completed only 15 of 40 passes for 132 yards with two interceptions. As a result, both of his picks went for touchdowns. Moore was on the run for most of the day, getting sacked four times and hurried on other numerous occasions.
The passing department wasn’t the only unit that laid an egg when they were pounded by Michigan. The Bearcats’ rushing attack averaged just 3.5 yards per carry and only collected 68 yards on the day. Tail back Mike Boone was the most productive runner with 44 yards on 12 touches including one yard scoring run.
Wide receiver Devin Gray paced the receiving corps with three catches for 41 yards but the offense constantly shot itself in the foot with mistakes and had issues moving the chains for the duration of the contest.
The Cincinnati defense surrendered over 400 yards of offense but still had Michigan stuck at 17 points heading into the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, the Wolverines capitalized on the Bearcats offensive mistakes and pulled away for the victory. Overall, Cincinnati is ranked 31st in the nation against the pass, giving way to only 155 yards per game. Unfortunately, their front seven is ranked 102nd in the country allowing 208.5 yards per outing.
Miami Ohio Redhawks (1-1)
Miami Ohio quarterback Gus Ragland surged into the starting spot later in the 2016 campaign and he is off to a solid start this season. The junior is 34 of 66 pass attempts through two outings, for 443 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. In the Redhawks defeat to the Bearcats last season, Ragland didn’t see any action because Billy Bahl was still under center.
Running back Alonzo Smith is also in fine form, with 144 yards on 35 carries and a 4.1 yards per carry average. In last weeks contest against Austin Peay, Smith ran for 88 yards on 23 carries as his quarterback did most of the damage throwing for three touchdown strikes.
Wide out James Gardner was the best player on the field for the Miami Ohio offense. He caught five passes from Gus Ragland for 117 yards with a 42 yard touchdown catch and another 32 yard end zone grab. Overall, Gardner has snatched up 13 balls for 228 yards and two scores.
On defense, the Redhawks a currently ranked 38th against the pass, surrendering 159 yards per ball game. They also are 46th in the nation against the run, allowing 109.5 yards per contest. Overall, they are 24th in the country yielding 268 yards a game. Both facets should be tested a lot more against the Bearcats than they were against lowly austin Peay.
Prediction
Cincinnati will have to do a lot more than beat Austin Peay 26-14 to inspire optimism in the first year under coach Fickell. The Wolverines did not exactly light up the scoreboard offensively but still managed to take care of the Bearcats with ease.
As for the Redhawks, their offense seems to be clicking again with Gus Ragland at quarterback. Furthermore, Alonzo Smith is helping to keep balance for their offense. With the emergence of James Gardner at wide receiver and Smith doing most of the work in the running department, this offense can only improve.
Obviously, Cincinnati has owned the Redhawks so the -5.5 spread concerns me a bit. Las Vegas also has this match-up’s total pretty low at 47.5. Apparently, odds makers are calling for a low scoring defensive affair. To me, that sounds like a game that will be highly contested throughout. With that outlook, I suggest taking Cincinnati as the dog. Although I do think this is the year that Gus Ragland puts an end to the Bearcats streak.
As far as the total goes, the 47.5 points is just too low for me to play the under. With that being said, I also don’t want to risk cash on the over when the Bearcats to cover is the better play. So, take Cincinnati to lose this addition of the battle for the Liberty Bell to the tune of 24-21 but stay close enough to put some dough back into your betting account.
Trends
The Bearcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
The Bearcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
The Under is 17-5-1 in the Bearcats last 23 games overall.
The Under is 3-1-1 in the Bearcats last 5 road games.
The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AAC.
The Redhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
The Under is 6-1 in the Redhawks last 7 home games.
The Under is 5-1 in the Redhawks last 6 non-conference games.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our seventh edition of our College Football Throwdown on Thursday, September 14th. We will be covering all the upcoming action for Saturday’s games. We also will be giving our dog picks of the week. Last week, both EJ and I were a combined 4-0 in our outright dogs to win picks. We also are nailing the action over 60 percent of the time. #moneytreesgrow
