The No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats (22-2, 11-0 AAC) visit SMU to take on the Mustangs (15-9, 5-6 AAC) in a matchup that pits great offense against superb defense. The game starts at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 11, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Cincinnati is an 8-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 126.5 points.
Cincinnati Bearcats at SMU Mustangs Betting Prediction
In the Bearcats’ last game, they dismantled the UCF Knights, 77-40. The Bearcats held the Knights to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.2 (below their season average of 31.1). The Knights also had a turnover percentage of 22.3 (above their season average of 19.0). Gary Clark was a key piece for Cincinnati with 12 points and five rebounds.
The Mustangs lost to the Houston Cougars in their last matchup, 67-58. Houston’s 36.7 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over SMU, who had a rate of 21.9. The Cougars’ mark was above their season average of 34.2, while the Mustangs’ was below their season average of 33.5. SMU’s Akoy Agau recorded 13 points and seven rebounds in the game.
This showdown pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. SMU ranks 40th in offensive efficiency and Cincinnati ranks first in defensive efficiency. Moreover, the Bearcats are among the NCAA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage (39.2 percent). The Mustangs, meanwhile, rank 253rd in defensive rebounding percentage (69.6 percent).
Cincinnati comes into the game with records of 22-2 straight up (SU) and 13-8 against the spread (ATS). Of the Bearcats’ 20 games that accepted bets, 13 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, SMU owns records of 15-9 SU and 9-10 ATS. Just over half of Mustangs games have also finished under the projected point total.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Clark had 18 points and eight rebounds in the first game, in which the Bearcats defeated the Mustangs 76-56, covering as 7.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 132 points, which was just 4.5 points above the projected point total of 127.5 points. The Bearcats had a much better turnover percentage (13.5 vs. 23.9) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (39.4 vs. 26.5).
Cincinnati Bearcats at SMU Mustangs Betting Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Cincinnati, ATS Winner – SMU, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Cincinnati is 6-5 ATS with 9 unders and 2 overs.
SMU is 6-3 ATS at home with 5 unders and 4 overs.
Cincinnati ranks 10th in rebounds per game (40.5) while SMU ranks 214th (34.0).
The Bearcats rank sixth in assists allowed per game (9.7) while the Mustangs rank 141st (13.5).
Cincinnati ranks 11th in blocks per game (5.6) while SMU ranks 111th (3.3).
The Mustangs are 18th in the NCAA with 4.8 steals allowed per game while the Bearcats are 38th with 5.2 steals allowed per game.
Cincinnati ranks 197th in three pointers attempted per game (20.8) while SMU ranks 215th in three pointers allowed per game (23.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
SMU is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Bearcats’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 20.4, up from 20.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mustangs have scored an average of 67.2 points per game (5.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.8 points per game (3.0 above their season average).
