The Cincinnati Reds will be squaring off against their divisional rival Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The game gets underway 4:05 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Chicago will be televising the action.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
The Reds have gone 63-85 SU this year and are 83-64 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline, despite having gained 5.5 units ATS. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 86-61 SU and 73-73 ATS. They’ve gained 1.9 units for moneyline bettors and 0.1 units ATS.
Cubs games have a 65-78-3 over/under record in 2018. The Reds have been a decent over bet with a total record of 76-66-5.
Left-hander Cody Reed is the projected starter for Cincinnati. Reed (0-2, 5.08 ERA) has recorded 24 strikeouts in 28.1 innings so far. He’s 0-0 with four strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Chicago this year.
The Cubs are turning to lefty Jon Lester (15-6, 3.57 ERA), who has 133 strikeouts and 58 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.34. Lester is 1-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 3.65 ERA over two starts against Cincinnati this year.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.16 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.78 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.22, along with a WHIP of 1.44.
The Reds offense has slashed .259/.336/.410 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Cincinnati’s offensive production has been fueled by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is slashing .320/.366/.503 with 22 home runs, 88 RBIs and 84 runs scored, while Peraza (.292/.332/.420) has produced 12 homers, 54 RBIs, 82 runs and 22 steals.
In the other dugout, Chicago’s pitching staff has allowed 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018. The club’s starters have a 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 67 games against divisional foes, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.41 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.82.
The Chicago offense is putting up 4.7 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .196/.274/.285 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo have led the way for the Cubs’ batters this year. Baez is hitting .295/.329/.566 with 31 home runs, 103 RBIs, 92 runs and 21 stolen bases, while Rizzo’s line is .276/.371/.469 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs and 66 runs.
The Reds have gained 7.0 units and are 26-15 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 17 that’ve hit the under against lefties. On the other hand, the Cubs have netted 1.7 units and are 16-15 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over’s hit in 15 of those games, compared to 16 that’ve gone under.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has cashed in four of Chicago’s last seven games.
Chicago has recorded 18.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 15.0 over its last five.
The Reds have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games. The Cubs have hit five over their last 10.
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