The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will be televising this NL matchup and the game gets going at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Odds
Oddsmakers are listing Miami (+120) as the underdog to Cincinnati (-130). Bettors can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -110 for over 7.5 runs and -110 for under 7.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at +115 for the Reds -1.5 runs and -135 for the Marlins +1.5.
The Marlins are 78-73 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 59-93 straight up (SU). The team’s lost 3.9 units for moneyline bettors and 10.8 units (ATS). Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, have gone 66-88 SU this year and are 87-66 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 8.8 units for moneyline bettors, but have gained 6.8 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven.
Miami games have a 76-70-5 over/under record in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 76-72-5.
Right-hander Luis Castillo is getting the nod for the visiting Reds. Castillo (10-12, 4.52 ERA) has recorded 160 punchouts in 161.1 innings so far. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 1.13 ERA and six strikeouts across eight innings).
The Marlins are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Wei-Yin Chen (6-11, 4.93 ERA), who has 102 strikeouts and 44 walks to his name, as well as a 1.35 WHIP. Chen is 0-1 with two strikeouts and a 9.00 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.
As a unit, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have an ERA of 4.45, a WHIP of 1.31 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 5.41 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 8.0 K/9.
The Miami hitters are putting up 3.7 runs per outing, including 3.4 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .226/.298/.341 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson have led the Marlins’ offense this year. Castro is hitting .282/.333/.407 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 75 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .268/.352/.391 with 10 homers, 59 RBIs and 81 runs.
In the other dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.82 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.18, along with a WHIP of 1.43 and a K/9 of 7.94.
The Reds offense has slashed .257/.333/.405 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 2.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 1.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is hitting .318/.367/.503 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs and 85 runs scored, while Peraza is hitting .290/.328/.419 with 13 homers, 56 RBIs, 84 runs and 23 steals.
The Reds have gained 4.3 units and are 29-17 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 23 of those games, as opposed to 22 that’ve hit the under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 1.3 units and are 57-58 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 57 of those games, compared to 53 that went under the total.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
Cincinnati has tallied 10 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Miami has 12 XBH over its last five.
The Cincinnati defense has allowed three errors over its last five games, compared to six errors for Miami over its last five.
The Reds have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit eight over their last 10.
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