Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 2.92 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (22-27) meet Brandon Finnegan (1-3, 3.97 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (16-33) in the last of a three-game division series at Miller Park. The Reds won the last game 7-6, and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 29 and will air on FSWI and FSOH.
In his last start, Nelson pitched 6.0 innings, giving up one run, striking out eight and walking three in a 2-1 victory over the Braves. The Reds were unsuccessful against the Dodgers 1-0 the last time Finnegan pitched. He went 8.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out two and walking four. Adam Duvall (.265, 21 Rs, 11 HRs, 26 RBIs, 1 SB) has been doing well offensively for the Reds, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and four RBIs.
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. Against teams in the NL Central, the Brewers have a SU record of 9-15. Over their past 10 games, Milwaukee’s offense has been playing lights out, averaging 0.0 runs per game, well over their season average of 0.0. The Brewers are a nightmare on the bases for opponents with an MLB-high 40 steals. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 0.0 during that span, compared to its 0.0 season average. An area where the Brewers are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average 7.3 K’s per home game.
Against teams in their division, the Reds are 7-10 SU. Cincinnati has been playing better lately, averaging 0.0 runs per game, more than their season average of 0.0. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Cincinnati pitchers. They’ve allowed 0.0 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 0.0.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIL
Notes
In their last game, the Reds won by a margin of one run. The Brewers are 9-8 in one-run games. The Reds have an 8-10 record in close games.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Reds have a 5-15 record when opponents give up one walk or less.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 3-22. The Reds have a 4-26 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 16th in home runs, Cincinnati has hit 50 this season. Milwaukee ranks 13th with 54 home runs.
Ranking 30th, Cincinnati is at the bottom of the league in hits, notching 7.37 per game. Milwaukee ranks near the bottom at 22nd with 8.04.
Ranking 27th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.668). Milwaukee ranks in the top half with an OPS of .729.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 12-27. When the Brewers allow one or more homers, they have a 17-23 record.
