Jimmy Nelson (6-11, 4.02 ERA) and Homer Bailey (1-1, 7.27 ERA) are on the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (51-62) and the Cincinnati Reds (46-67) at Miller Park. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Aug. 12 and can be seen on FSWI and FSOH.
Nelson pitched 4.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering seven runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking three in a 9-3 defeat to the Diamondbacks. Ryan Braun (.325, 56 Rs, 19 HRs, 58 RBIs, 13 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one RBI. Bailey went 3.0 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out four and walking one in a 5-3 defeat to the Pirates in his last outing. Adam Duvall (.240, 61 Rs, 26 HRs, 74 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 3 Wednesday.
Milwaukee is a -123 favorite against Cincinnati and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Brewers have an overall money line of -438 and a record as the favorite of 18-15. Within its division, Milwaukee has a 3-3 record as favorite and a 16-23 record SU. Milwaukee leads the MLB in steals, swiping 123 bases.
As for their opponent, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -869 and a disappointing record of 30-61 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 15-26 record against fellow NL Central members, and a 5-5 record SU. The Reds are an excellent base stealing team with 102 stolen bases, ranking second in the MLB. The Reds allow 5.5 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 3.5 runs per game during that span.
The Brewers have a 30-48 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Bailey takes the mound. Nelson (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 38-50 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIL, O/U – Over
Notes
The Reds lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Brewers are 16-22. The Reds are 16-23 in close games this season.
The Brewers are coming into this matchup after a high-scoring game where they scored a whopping 11 runs. The Reds have a 0-11 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 8-52. The Brewers have an 8-51 record when opponents outhit them.
Tied at 20th for total home runs, Milwaukee and Cincinnati have each hit 123 homers this season.
Milwaukee and Cincinnati both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Milwaukee sits at 13th with 8.13 hits per game and Cincinnati ranks 12th with 8.19.
Ranking 25th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.708). Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half at 18th with an OPS of .731.
The Reds are 32-55 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Brewers are 31-46 when they allow at least one homer.
