The Minnesota Twins will face off against the Cincinnati Reds at Target Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North will broadcast this interleague matchup.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins Odds
Cincinnati (+175) is hosting this game as the underdog against Minnesota (-185) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 9.5 runs (+105 for the over and -125 for the under). Runline odds sit at -125 for taking the Reds +1.5 runs and +105 for the Twins -1.5 runs.
The Twins are 9-13 SU and 12-9 ATS. The team has lost 4.6 units for moneyline bettors while earning 0.1 units against the spread (ATS). Minnesota has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven. The Reds are 6-21 SU and have gone 12-14 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 13.3 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 6.8 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.
Twins games have an 11-10 over/under record thus far in 2018. Cincinnati has an over/under record of 12-14.
The right-handed Tyler Mahle is projected to start for the visiting Reds. Mahle is 1-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 31 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Twins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Twins are turning to righty Jose Berrios (2-2, 2.84 ERA), who has 36 punchouts and three walks as well as a WHIP of 0.76. Berrios did not record a start against the Reds in 2017.
As a unit, Minnesota’s pitching staff has allowed 5.4 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.33, a WHIP of 1.32 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.3. The bullpen has a 6.26 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.
The Minnesota offense has produced 4.1 runs per contest, including 3.9 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team has hit .260/.344/.439 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that span.
The Twins’ batters have been led by right fielder Max Kepler and first baseman Joe Mauer. Kepler is slashing .295/.360/.538 with 23 hits, nine RBIs and eight runs scored, and Mauer is hitting .292 with 21 hits, six RBIs and 11 runs.
Kepler seemed to enjoy hitting right-handed pitchers at home last year, slashing .297/.367/.528 in 218 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .243/.312/.425).
For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.6 runs per game and its starters own a 5.68 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 7.06 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.06, along with a WHIP of 1.50 and a K-per-9 of 8.44.
The Reds offense has slashed .239/.321/.355 on its way to 3.9 runs scored per game this season, including 5.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
First baseman Joey Votto and left fielder Jesse Winker have led Cincinnati’s hitters. Votto is slashing .271/.388/.417 with four home runs, 14 RBIs and eight runs scored, while Winker (.292/.416/.361) has produced zero homers, eight RBIs and seven runs scored.
Winker enjoyed hitting against right-handed pitching on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .358/.414/.679 across 58 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .298/.375/.529).
The Reds have lost 11.5 units and are 10-12 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in nine of those games, compared to 13 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Twins have lost 4.2 units and are 9-7 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in nine of those games, as opposed to seven which went under the total.
Cincinnati Reds at Minnesota Twins Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Reds have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
Cincinnati has averaged 23 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 contests and 29 over its last five.
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