Michael Wacha (7-7, 4.35 ERA) and Cody Reed (0-6, 7.30 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the St. Louis Cardinals (58-53) and the Cincinnati Reds (45-65) at Busch Stadium. Action begins at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 8 and can be seen on FSMW and FSOH.
Wacha pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs, striking out three and walking one in a 5-4 win over the Reds. Brandon Moss (.262, 44 Rs, 18 HRs, 44 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. Reed went 5.0 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out one and walking one in a 5-4 defeat to the Cardinals in his last outing.
This one isn’t expected to be close when St. Louis, a big -190 favorite, takes on Cincinnati. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently nine runs. The Cardinals have an overall money line of -442 and a record as the favorite of 41-35. St. Louis has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 18-13 and 24-19 records as the favorite and SU, respectively. The Cardinals have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the NL in offense with 5.0 runs per game. The Cardinals are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 387. St. Louis is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.4 per game. St. Louis’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.3 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.3. The Cardinals are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.8 walks per game so far this season.
As for their opponent, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -847 and a disappointing record of 29-59 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 14-24 record against NL Central opponents, and a 6-4 record SU. The Reds are an excellent base stealing team with 95 stolen bases, ranking third in the MLB. The Reds allow 5.5 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 2.6 runs per game during that span.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 5-4. The Cardinals have a 14-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Reed takes the mound. Wacha (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 37-49 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 42% (23-32) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, St. Louis has won 56% (28-22) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Reds managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Cardinals who are heading in with a 23-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 33-10. The Cardinals have a 40-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Cincinnati sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 477 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top five at fourth with 552.
Ranking 26th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 301 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 377.
The Cardinals are 47-32 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Reds are 34-36 when they hit at least one homer.
