Mike Leake (0-1, 3.92 ERA) and Jon Lester (0-2, 6.89 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (8-8) and the Chicago Cubs (8-7) at the Great American Ball Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Apr. 24 and can be seen on CSN-CHI and FSN-OH.
Leake is 8-2 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts against the Cubs. Zack Cozart (.328, 8 Rs, 4 HRs, 8 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Against the Reds, Lester is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and four strikeouts. Starlin Castro (.355, 6 Rs, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run.
The odds for Cincinnati and Chicago are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs. Within its division, Cincinnati has a record of 8-7 SU. The Reds are one of the best in the MLB in terms of home runs with 19. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 17 bases.
The Cubs are 5-3 against NL Central rivals. Offensively, they average 4.4 runs per game, which is good for fifth in the NL. The Cubs are an excellent base stealing team with 16 stolen bases, ranking second in the MLB. The Cubs average 4.1 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 3.2 against division foes. When it comes to issuing walks, the Cubs have the fewest in the NL with only 1.9 walks allowed per game. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.7 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Cubs lead the season series, 2-1. Leake (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 7-5 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
The Cubs lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Reds are 5-2. The Cubs are 4-4 in close games this season.
When leading after 7 innings, Chicago is 4-3, while Cincinnati is 3-3.
The Reds are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Cubs have a 1-2 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Cubs are 3-6. The Reds have a 3-5 record when opponents outhit them.
Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the league at 18th when it comes to home runs, hitting 13 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top five at fourth with 19.
Ranking 11th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.73 per game. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.50.
Ranking 24th, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.646). Chicago ranks in the top 10 at 10th with an OPS of .715.
The Cubs are 4-5 when they allow at least one home run. The Reds perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 6-7 record.
