Mike Leake (3-4, 4.35 ERA) and Justin Verlander (0-0, 3.60 ERA) take the hill in the second of a two-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (30-35) and the Detroit Tigers (34-32) at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds won the last game 8-4 and Cincinnati leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 18 and can be seen on FSN-DET and FSN-OH.
Leake pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs and striking out one in a 4-3 defeat to the Cubs. Todd Frazier (.294, 48 Rs, 22 HRs, 46 RBIs, 8 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 6 with two runs, two home runs, and five RBIs. Against the Reds, Verlander is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and nine strikeouts. Miguel Cabrera (.342, 38 Rs, 15 HRs, 51 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
Cincinnati is a slim -109 favorite at home against Detroit. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. Though the Reds have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-703), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 17-10. Cincinnati is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 6-4 SU record in its last ten outings. The Reds have seen a decline in scoring against teams in the AL, averaging 2.7 runs per game. They average 4.0 runs per game on the season. The Reds are one of the best in the MLB in terms of home runs with 79. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 66 bases. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 3.2 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.3.
In games where it is the underdog, Detroit has a 12-13 record and an overall money line of zero. Detroit is 4-3 as the underdog and 7-6 SU against interleague opponents. Offensively, the Tigers have really sputtered in interleague games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 3.6 in those contests. The Tigers are tough outs for opponents, ranking second in the AL with 9.3 hits per road game. The Tigers are an excellent base stealing team with 52 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB. The Tigers allow 4.1 runs per game, but does better whenever an NL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 3.4 against teams from the NL.
The Reds lead the season series, 2-1. The Reds have a 21-26 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Verlander takes the mound. Leake (RHP) will be on the hill against the Tigers, who have a 24-25 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – DET, O/U – Over
Notes
The Tigers are 3-3 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Reds are 3-5 in such matchups.
The Tigers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Reds who are heading in with a 15-9 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Tigers are 2-22. The Reds have a 6-25 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, Detroit has hit 53 this season. Cincinnati ranks fifth with 79 home runs.
Ranking first in hits, Detroit has earned 9.38 per game this season. Cincinnati ranks 12th with 8.16 hits.
Ranking 17th, Cincinnati is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.717). Detroit ranks in the top five at third with an OPS of .745.
The Tigers are 12-23 when they allow at least one home run. The Reds perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 14-27 record.
