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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick 05/11/18

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will showcase this NL matchup.

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers Odds

Los Angeles (-210) is the favorite against Cincinnati (+190) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at eight runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at -115 for the Reds +1.5 runs and -105 for the Dodgers -1.5 runs.

The Reds are only 11-27 SU and are 19-18 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 16.3 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 3.6 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are 16-21 SU and 13-23 ATS. They’ve lost 17.8 units for moneyline bettors and 11.8 units ATS. Los Angeles has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.

Los Angeles games have had an over/under record of 19-16-1 so far in 2018. Cincinnati has an over/under record of 17-20.

Matt Harvey is getting the nod for Cincinnati. The right-handed Harvey is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and 20 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Dodgers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Dodgers are preparing to start righty Kenta Maeda (2-2, 4.02 ERA), who has 41 strikeouts and 11 walks, as well as a 1.40 WHIP. Maeda only made one start against the Reds in 2017 (1-0, 2.00 ERA and 11 strikeouts across nine innings).

Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.01 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.45, along with a WHIP of 1.43.

The Reds offense has slashed .240/.323/.372 on its way to 4.0 runs scored per game this year, including 4.0 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Joey Votto and third baseman Eugenio Suarez have led Cincinnati’s offense. Votto is hitting .281/.402/.430 with five home runs, 20 RBIs and 15 runs scored, while Suarez has a .296 average with five homers, 25 RBIs and 14 runs scored.

Suarez taken a step back when hitting right-handed pitchers on the road in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .233/.340/.300 across 250 such plate appearances (compared to his overall season line of .260/.367/.461).

In the home-team dugout, Los Angeles’ pitching staff has given up 4.2 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.6 K/9.

The Los Angeles offense has produced 4.4 runs per contest, including 3.5 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .230/.337/.316 over its last five matchups and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

Left fielder Matt Kemp and catcher Yasmani Grandal have led the way for the Dodgers’ hitters so far. Kemp is hitting .333/.376/.537 with five home runs, 17 RBIs and 13 runs scored, while Grandal’s line is .274/.381/.487 with five homers, 23 RBIs and 18 runs scored.

The Reds have lost 13.1 units and are 14-14 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 13 of those games, compared to 15 that’ve gone under against righties.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Dodgers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

Cincinnati has posted 19.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.0 over its last five.

The Reds have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.

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