The Cincinnati Reds will be squaring off against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park. Fox Sports Ohio will be airing this NL matchup and the game gets going at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins Odds
Cincinnati (-115) is favored against Miami (+105) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this day game at 8 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -120 for the over and +100 for the under. Gamblers can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at Reds -1.5 runs (+130) and Marlins +1.5 runs (-150).
The Reds are 66-90 SU and are 88-67 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 9.2 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 6.9 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in all seven of them. The Marlins, on the other hand, are 61-93 SU and 79-74 ATS. The team’s lost 3.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.2 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Marlins games have a 76-72-5 over/under record in 2018. The Reds have an over/under record of 76-74-5.
Michael Lorenzen is getting the start for Cincinnati. The right-handed Lorenzen is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 52 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Marlins will turn to Trevor Richards (3-9, 4.95 ERA), who’s got 113 strikeouts and 51 walks as well as a 1.45 WHIP. Richards did not record any MLB pitching stats last season.
As a unit, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 5.1 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have a 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.37 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 8.0 K/9.
The Miami offense is putting up 3.7 runs per contest, including 3.5 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .222/.292/.321 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .280/.330/.403 with 12 home runs, 54 RBIs and 75 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .268/.352/.392 with 10 homers, 60 RBIs and 83 runs scored.
In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 7.85 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.17, along with a WHIP of 1.42 and a K/9 of 7.91.
The Reds offense has slashed .255/.331/.403 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game in 2018, including 1.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 1.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is hitting .316/.364/.497 with 23 home runs, 92 RBIs and 85 runs scored. Peraza is hitting .290/.329/.418 with 13 homers, 56 RBIs, 84 runs and 23 stolen bases.
The Marlins have gained 2.6 units and are 58-58 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 57 of those games, compared to 54 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Marlins, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The over has hit in zero of Cincinnati’s last seven contests.
The Reds have dropped three of their last four games SU.
Miami has posted 17.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.0 over its last five.
Each team has hit eight home runs over its last 10 games.
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