The Milwaukee Brewers will play host to their division rival Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. The game gets underway 8:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be airing the matchup.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Cincinnati (+165) is the underdog against Milwaukee (-175) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this night game at 9 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total stand at -105 for the over and -115 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at -135 for the Reds +1.5 runs and +115 for the Brewers -1.5.
The Reds have gone 55-70 SU this year and are 71-53 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t moved the needle much this year, losing 3.1 units for moneyline gamblers, despite having gained 5.6 units ATS. Cincinnati is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 70-57 SU and 64-62 ATS. They’ve gained 9.1 units for moneyline bettors while earning 3.3 units ATS. Milwaukee has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven outings and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Brewers games have an over/under record of 59-63-4 in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 65-55-4.
The right-handed Sal Romano will get the start for Cincinnati. Romano is 7-10 with a 5.31 ERA and 88 strikeouts. He’s 0-2 with nine strikeouts and a 3.60 ERA against Milwaukee this year (two starts).
The Brewers will put the ball in the right hand of Junior Guerra (6-8, 3.73 ERA), who has 116 punchouts and 50 walks as well as a 1.33 WHIP. Guerra is 1-0 with 13 strikeouts and a 3.09 ERA across two starts against Cincinnati this year.
As a unit, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 3.97, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 3.76 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. In 50 divisional games, Brewers starters have an ERA of 3.66 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.35.
The Milwaukee hitters are putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 3.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .244/.322/.366 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Brewers’ batters have been led by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is slashing .308/.371/.522 with 20 home runs, 62 RBIs, 85 runs and 14 stolen bases, and Cain is hitting .304 with nine homers, 31 RBIs, 64 runs and 24 stolen bases.
In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 5.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.53 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.14, along with a WHIP of 1.43.
Reds hitters have slashed .258/.337/.405 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s hitters. Gennett is slashing .312/.360/.490 with 18 home runs, 72 RBIs and 73 runs scored, while Peraza is slashing .290/.333/.409 with eight homers, 42 RBIs, 67 runs and 18 stolen bases.
The Reds have lost 11.1 units and are 49-42 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 46 of those games, compared to 42 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 13.6 units and are 50-44 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 39 of those games, compared to 51 that went under.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in four of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
The Reds have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
Cincinnati has averaged 22.4 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 outings and 25.8 over its last five.
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