In the second of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (36-42) and the Milwaukee Brewers (36-42) at the Great American Ball Park, Josh Smith (0-1, 5.62 ERA) and Jimmy Nelson (5-8, 4.48 ERA) get the ball. The Brewers won the last game 12-1, extending a six-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jul. 4 and will air on FOX.
In his most recent outing, Smith pitched 5.0 innings, giving up one, striking out three and walking four in a 7-2 loss to the Mets. In his career against the Reds, Nelson is 0-1 with a 5.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 14 strikeouts. Ryan Braun (.277, 46 Rs, 15 HRs, 54 RBIs, 10 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Brewers, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base.
Cincinnati is a small underdog (-103) and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Reds have a losing record of 14-28 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -555. They have a 15-16 record SU and are 10-13 as the underdog within their division. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 81 steals. Turning to the pitching staff, the Reds are fifth in the NL in hits allowed with just 8.3 per game.
Across the field, the Brewers have a record of 13-17 when they are favored and are -1,374 overall with the money line. They have played at the top of their game when rated as favorite recently. They managed a 7-1 record when playing as the favorite and an SU record of 8-2. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.2 runs per game, above their 3.8 season average. Milwaukee’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.1 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 4.7.
The Reds have gotten the best of the Brewers in head-to-head matchups this season, going 5-3. The Reds will take on a right-hander (Nelson) in this game and have a 27-30 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the right-hander Smith. Right-handed starters have been a big issue for them as they sport a 23-40 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Brewers won by a margin of 11 runs. The Reds are 0-1 in games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more. The Brewers have a 2-3 record in blowouts.
The Brewers are 3-2 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Reds are 4-6 in such matchups.
The Brewers are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded two strikeouts. The Reds have a record of 2-3 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 28-10. The Brewers have a 26-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st in runs, Cincinnati has earned 314 this season. Milwaukee ranks 17th with 323 runs.
Ranking 26th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 188 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 245.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 30-21. When the Brewers hit at least one homer, they have a 26-16 record.
