In a game that has the potential for a lot of runs, Matt Garza (6-14, 5.56 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (58-75) are in Cincinnati to take on Keyvius Sampson (2-2, 6.43 ERA) and the Reds (55-77). This is the first of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 4 and can be seen on FSOH and FSWI.
Sampson pitched 3.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking two in a 12-9 defeat to the Brewers. Joey Votto (.316, 81 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 8 SBs) continued his strong play Wednesday, going 2 for 5 with two runs, one home run, and three RBIs. Garza went 3.2 innings, surrendering seven runs, striking out two and walking one in a 12-9 defeat to the Reds in his last outing. Khris Davis (.235, 36 Rs, 17 HRs, 48 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Cincinnati is a -124 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Reds have an overall money line of -2,007 and a record as the favorite of 28-23. Cincinnati is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 4-6 SU record in its last ten outings. The Reds have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.4 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.0 runs per game. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 120 bases.
In the other locker room, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,628 and a disappointing record of 32-48 as the underdog. They are 16-22 as the underdog against NL Central rivals, and 24-29 SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 5.3 during that stretch. The Brewers average 4.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against division foes.
The Brewers lead the season series, 7-6. The Reds have a 43-58 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Garza takes the mound. Sampson (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 40-61 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Cin, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Cincinnati’s last 25 games when playing Milwaukee.
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
The Reds hold a 25-29 record this season against teams in the NL Central Division. The Brewers’ record in these matchups is 24-29.
The Reds managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Brewers who are coming in with a 14-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 8-55. The Brewers have a 10-58 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 20th in home runs, Milwaukee has hit 120 this season. Cincinnati ranks ninth with 141 home runs.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at seventh with 8.60 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks ninth with 8.52.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.709). Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 18th with an OPS of .715.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 33-53, well-matched with the Reds who are 25-60 when allowing at least one homer.
