Mike Leake (0-1, 3.90 ERA) and Matt Garza (1-3, 5.16 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (10-10) and the Milwaukee Brewers (4-17) at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds won the last game 4-2 and Cincinnati leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 12:35 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 29 and can be seen on FSN-WI and FSN-OH.
Leake is 2-3 with a 4.61 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, but goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .222 this season. Joey Votto (.316, 13 Rs, 7 HRs, 16 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Garza is 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA against the Reds in his career. He takes on a below-average Cincinnati offense that’s batting just .223. Adam Lind (.329, 7 Rs, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Cincinnati is a -156 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. Though the Reds have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-50), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 4-2. Within its division, Cincinnati has a 4-2 record as favorite and a 9-10 record SU. The Reds have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the NL in home offense with 4.2 runs per game. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 23 bases.
As for their opponent, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,299 and a disappointing record of 2-9 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 1-6 record, and a 2-8 record SU.
The Reds have controlled the season series, 5-1. The Reds have an 8-7 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Garza takes the mound. Leake (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 4-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Cincinnati is 4-4, while Milwaukee is 2-6.
The Reds are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Brewers have a 0-3 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Reds have a slight leg up on the Brewers, as the Reds have won their last two games while the Brewers have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 2-2. The Reds have a 5-3 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 27th, Milwaukee sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 63 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 15th with 81.
Ranking 28th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 40 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 67.
The Reds are 8-6 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Brewers are 3-5 when they hit at least one homer.
