Michael Lorenzen (3-8, 5.66 ERA) and Jimmy Nelson (11-10, 3.70 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (55-79) and the Milwaukee Brewers (60-75) at the Great American Ball Park. The Brewers won the last game 7-3, continuing a six-game winning streak. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 6 and can be seen on FSOH and FSWI.
Lorenzen pitched 4.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs, striking out five and walking one in a 13-6 defeat to the Cubs. Joey Votto (.317, 83 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Nelson went 7.0 innings, surrendering one run and striking out six in a 7-4 win over the Pirates in his last outing. Ryan Braun (.282, 80 Rs, 24 HRs, 79 RBIs, 22 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and two stolen bases.
Cincinnati is a slim -114 favorite at home against Milwaukee. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of eight runs. The Reds have an overall money line of -2,258 and a record as the favorite of 28-25. Cincinnati has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 120 bases.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 34-48 record and an overall money line of -1,397. They are 17-22 as the underdog against NL Central foes, and 25-29 SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 6.0 during that stretch. The Brewers average 4.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against division foes.
The Brewers lead the season series, 9-6. The Reds have a 43-59 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Nelson takes the mound. Lorenzen (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 40-61 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Cin, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 37% (18-31) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Milwaukee has won 53% (33-29) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 21-35 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 8-57. The Brewers have a 10-58 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half of the league at 19th when it comes to home runs, hitting 123 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 142.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at eighth with 8.60 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks ninth with 8.52.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Cincinnati sits at 19th with an OPS of .715 and Milwaukee ranks 20th with an OPS of .712.
The Brewers are 34-53 when they allow at least one home run. The Reds perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 25-62 record.
