Mike Leake (5-4, 3.91 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (5-4, 3.06 ERA) are on the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (34-40) and the Minnesota Twins (40-35) at the Great American Ball Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jun. 29 and can be seen on FSN-N and FSN-OH.
Leake pitched 0.0 inning in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs in a 2-1 defeat to the Mets. Todd Frazier (.290, 54 Rs, 25 HRs, 53 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. When pitching against the Reds, Pelfrey is 4-2 with a 5.09 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts. Torii Hunter (.266, 37 Rs, 11 HRs, 43 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Cincinnati is a -137 favorite against Minnesota and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. Though the Reds have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-632), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 20-12. Against the AL, they are unbeaten as the favorite (1-0), but have an SU record of 3-8. The Reds have seen a decline in scoring against teams in the AL, averaging 3.2 runs per game. They average 4.0 runs per game on the season. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 75 bases.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 33-28 record and an overall money line of +1,240. Minnesota is 7-5 as the underdog and 7-8 SU against National League opponents. Offensively, the Twins have really sputtered in interleague games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 3.3 in those contests.
The Reds have a 25-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Pelfrey takes the mound. Leake (RHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 22-25 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 43% (13-17) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Minnesota has won 44% (12-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Reds managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Twins who are coming in with a 7-2 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Twins are 7-32. The Reds have a 6-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 21st in home runs, Minnesota has hit 62 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 88 home runs.
Cincinnati and Minnesota both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at ninth with 8.49 hits per game and Minnesota ranks 10th with 8.31.
Ranking 20th, Minnesota is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.691). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .717.
The Twins are 22-26 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Reds are 15-31 when they allow at least one homer.
