In the last of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (35-41) and the Minnesota Twins (35-41) at the Great American Ball Park, Johnny Cueto (4-5, 2.98 ERA) and Trevor May (4-6, 4.62 ERA) get the ball. The Twins won the last game 8-5 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 12:35 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and will air on FSN-N.
In his last start, Cueto pitched 6.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out six and walking three in a 2-1 loss to the Mets. Todd Frazier (.287, 54 Rs, 25 HRs, 54 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. The Twins were also unsuccessful the last time May pitched. He did not do well, pitching, going 0.1 inning, allowing five runs (one unearned) in a 10-4 loss to the Brewers. Brian Dozier (.268, 60 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 7 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Twins, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two runs.
Cincinnati is a considerable -190 favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is seven runs. The Reds perform well as a favorite with a 21-12 record, but haven’t fared as well with the overall money line (-532). They stand undefeated as the favorite with a 2-0 record, though they have a less impressive record SU (4-8) against the American League. The Reds come into the game with the NL’s third-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 4.7 runs per game in their own ballpark. The Reds rank fourth in the NL in hits at home with 8.8 per game. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 81 steals. Whenever an American League opponent shows up on the calendar, the Reds seem to struggle with pitching. They allow an average of 4.2 runs per game, but allow 4.9 against teams from the AL.
On the other side, the Twins have a record of 33-29 when they are the underdog and are +1,140 overall with the money line. When playing Interleague opponents, they have a 0-3 as the favorite and 7-9 SU. The Twins have not played up to par on offense against the NL. Minnesota has averaged 3.6 runs per game, less than their 4.2 season average.
The Reds will take on a right-hander (May) in this game and have a 26-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Twins will be the right-hander Cueto. They sport a 22-26 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
Minnesota has won 43% (12-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 45% (14-17) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Reds managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Twins who are coming in with a 14-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Twins are 7-33. The Reds have a 6-28 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, Minnesota has hit 64 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 90 home runs.
Cincinnati and Minnesota both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at ninth with 8.60 hits per game and Minnesota ranks 10th with 8.30.
Ranking 19th, Minnesota is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.696). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .723.
When the Twins allow at least one home run, they are 23-26. When the Reds allow one or more homers, they have a 16-32 record.
