Anthony DeSclafani (7-10, 3.87 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (56-79) go up against Jeff Locke (7-9, 4.66 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (81-54) in the first of a three-game division series at the Great American Ball Park. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 7 and will air on FSOH and RTPT.
In his last start, DeSclafani pitched 5.2 innings, giving up three runs, striking out seven and walking two in a 5-4 loss to the Cubs. Joey Votto (.318, 85 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with two runs. The Pirates were unsuccessful the last time Locke pitched. He struggled, going 3.2 innings, allowing five runs and striking out two in a 9-4 loss to the Brewers.
Cincinnati, a +124 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Pittsburgh. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at eight runs. The Reds perform poorly as an underdog with a 28-54 record and have an overall money line of -2,146. They have an SU record of 26-31 against teams in their division and a 19-23 record when they were the underdog in those games. Over their past 10 games, Cincinnati’s offense has been playing lights out, averaging 5.2 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.0. The Reds rank fifth in the NL in hits at home with 8.8 per game. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 120 steals. Turning to the pitching staff, an area where the Reds are particularly strong at home is striking batters out, where they average 8.3 K’s per home game.
On the other side, the Pirates have a nice record of 63-32 when they are favored and are +1,528 overall with the money line. Against divisional foes, they are 22-33 SU and have played poorly as the favorite with a 16-18 record. The Pirates rank fifth in the NL in scoring, averaging 4.2 runs per game. Pittsburgh is one of the top road hitting teams in the NL with an average of 9.2 hits per contest. Switching gears to Pittsburgh’s pitching staff, they have the second-lowest ERA in the NL at 3.23.
The Reds had the upper hand against the Pirates in their previous 13 games this season, earning a 9-4 record. The Reds will take on a left-hander (Locke) in this game and have a 12-19 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed DeSclafani will take the mound against the Pirates, who have a 65-41 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Pittsburgh is 29-29, while Cincinnati is 18-31.
The Pirates are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Reds have a record of 15-24 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 44-16. The Pirates have a 57-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 25th in runs, Cincinnati has earned 544 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 14th with 574 runs.
Ranking 21st, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 369 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 420.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 48-37. When the Pirates hit at least one homer, they have a 53-25 record.
