The Cincinnati Reds are ready to take on their divisional nemesis St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Fox Sports Midwest will televise the matchup and the opening pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Odds
Cincinnati (+130) is entering this game as the underdog against St. Louis (-140) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 9 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at +100 for the over and -120 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at -170 for the Reds +1.5 runs and +150 for the Cardinals -1.5.
The Cardinals are 47-45 straight up (SU) and 45-46 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 7.3 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.7 units (ATS). St. Louis has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Reds have gone 42-52 SU this year and are 56-37 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 2.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have gained 8.8 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven.
St. Louis games have had an over/under record of 39-48-4 so far in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 48-41-4.
The right-handed Luis Castillo is getting the start for Cincinnati. Castillo is 5-8 with a 5.58 ERA and 94 strikeouts. He’s 0-2 with 13 strikeouts and a 6.55 ERA against St. Louis this year (two starts).
The Cardinals are handing the ball to righty Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.47 ERA), who’s got 82 strikeouts and 21 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.11. Flaherty hasn’t faced the Reds yet this year, but he made two starts against them in 2017, posting a 0-1 record with a 7.11 ERA.
St. Louis’ pitching staff has yielded 4.2 runs per game overall this season as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.47, a WHIP of 1.23 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.35 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 42 games against NL Central foes, Cardinals starters have an ERA of 3.47 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.17.
The St. Louis hitters have produced 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .241/.327/.339 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Cardinals’ hitters have been led by first baseman Jose Martinez and left fielder Marcell Ozuna. Martinez is slashing .298/.365/.479 with 13 home runs, 55 RBIs and 35 runs scored, and Ozuna’s line is .270/.312/.390 with 10 homers, 48 RBIs and 37 runs.
In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.09 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.37 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.26, along with a WHIP of 1.44.
Reds hitters have slashed .259/.342/.407 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
Cincinnati’s offense has been fueled by second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza. Gennett is slashing .326/.372/.523 with 16 home runs, 60 RBIs and 59 runs scored, while Peraza (.279/.326/.380) has produced five homers, 32 RBIs, 51 runs and 17 stolen bases.
The Reds have lost 7.0 units and are 40-28 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 32 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve gone under against righties. On the other hand, the Cardinals have lost 1.8 units and are 34-33 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 26 of those games, compared to 37 that went under the total.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
Cincinnati has tallied 22 extra-base hits over its last five games. St. Louis has nine XBH over its last five.
The Reds have won three of their last four games SU while the Cardinals have dropped three of their last four.
Cincinnati fielders have 12 errors over the last 10 games, compared to seven errors for St. Louis over its last 10.
The Reds have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
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