In the second of a four-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (58-81) and the St. Louis Cardinals (88-52) at the Great American Ball Park, Michael Lorenzen (4-8, 5.54 ERA) and John Lackey (11-9, 2.90 ERA) get the start. The Reds won the last game 11-0 and Cincinnati leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 11 and will air on FSOH and FSMW.
In his most recent outing, Lorenzen pitched 5.1 innings, giving up two runs, striking out two and walking one in a 6-3 victory over the Brewers. Joey Votto (.317, 87 Rs, 27 HRs, 71 RBIs, 8 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI. The Cardinals were unsuccessful the last time Lackey pitched. He went 7.1 innings, allowing three runs, striking out four and walking two in a 7-1 loss to the Pirates.
Cincinnati, a +148 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against St. Louis. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at eight runs. The Reds perform poorly as an underdog with a 28-56 record and have an overall money line of -2,246. They have disappointing records of 19-25 as the underdog and 27-33 SU within their division. The Reds are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with an MLB-high 120 steals. Turning to the pitching staff, they have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out at the Great American Ball Park, averaging 8.3 strikeouts per home game.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Cardinals come into this game with a solid win percentage of .692 when playing as the favorite (74-33) and an overall money line of +2,526. Against fellow NL Central members, they are 34-22 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 28-14 record. St. Louis has an eye for the strike zone, ranking 3.1 in the NL with fifth walks per game. The Cardinals are a problem for opposing batters, sporting an NL-low 2.79 ERA this season.
The Cardinals have gotten the better of the Reds in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-5. The Reds will take on a right-hander (Lackey) in this game and have a 44-60 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Cardinals will be the right-hander Lorenzen. Right-handed starters haven’t been a big issue for them as they sport a 68-35 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – StL, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Reds won by a margin of 11 runs. The Cardinals are 1-0 in games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more. The Reds have a 1-3 record in blowouts.
Cincinnati has won 36% (18-32) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 61% (31-20) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Cardinals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Reds have an 8-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 44-16. The Cardinals have a 53-15 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, Cincinnati ranks 23rd with 554 runs and St. Louis is 24th with 560.
Cincinnati and St. Louis both rank in the top 10 of the league in walks. Cincinnati sits at eighth with 428 this season and St. Louis ranks seventh with 429.
The Reds are 48-38 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Cardinals are 57-22 when they hit at least one homer.
