TNT’s high profile game on Thursday night will feature the Houston Rockets and the Cleveland Cavaliers, in what some had hoped to be a preview of the future Finals. At this point, the Rockets are rolling but still have many obstacles to overcome, and the Cavs never look more distant from the Finals since James returned from Miami.
Cavaliers at Rockets
Spread: Houston -5.5 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: o/u 228 points (-110)
The Cavaliers survive visiting Bucks, win 124-119 at the Q
They gave it all, and barely won, but at least the home fans got the sweet taste of victory from a team that had let them down too many times this season. The Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the division rivals Milwaukee Bucks for the second time this season, ensuring at least a split in season series, in a star-orchestrated close encounter on Tuesday night.
Kevin Love and LeBron James combined for 62 points and J.R. Smith got hot from beyond the arc, hitting 5-of-7 treys to help their team sustain a 40-point outing from Milwaukee’s superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo and edge out the Bucks 124-119. The Cavaliers led most of the way, but couldn’t create real separation due to another collapse on the defensive end. They’ve allowed 114 points on average this season, a figure that they vowed to try to keep down, but the Bucks shot 56.6 percent from the field and 43 percent from outside despite not having Monroe off the bench (who was injured but also got traded prior to the game). The Cavs managed to win because of a large disparity on the free throw shots. The Bucks are already marked by the officials as a team that foul a lot, so they were very whistle happy when any contact occurred, especially in an attempt to (over)protect the stars. The Cavs were 33-of-38 from the charity stripe (26 by James and Love), while the Bucks had shot just 16 freebies (11 by Greek Freak) and connected on 12. The offense was fine, except for Rose, who shouldn’t be starting really – the Cavs probably can’t wait that Thomas recovers.
Shumpert returned from a few games absence, and Love showed no signs of what was reported as an illness. Thompson is still a few weeks away. The Cavaliers kick off a road trip that will include visits to Houston, Dallas, and New York before ending in Charlotte.
Place: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Date/Time: Thursday, November 9th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
Houston ignore Jazz ways, drop 137 points on league’s stingiest defense
Three minutes into Sunday’s game against the Utah Jazz, it seemed that the Houston Rockets are heading into a long game. They trailed 10-2, clanking shots. For the next 45 minutes, they couldn’t miss. The Rockets shook off a sleepy start to drub the Jazz 137-110, scoring 113 points over the next 33 minutes behind a career night from their hit shooting guard James Harden, who had 56 points in 35 minutes of action.
Remember when I doubted that a move for Paul is good for this team? Well, this is still not this team, but the last year’s edition – and the Rockets were pretty good last season. When their shots are falling, they seem unstoppable. Harden hit 19-of-25 of his field goal attempts, missing just a single three (out of 8 tries) and had 13 assists to go along the franchise second-highest 56 points. While such nights happen from time to time, you can rarely witness that other players get equally hot. The Rockets shot 59.3 percent from the field and 59.0 percent from outside the three-point line in the best offensive performance against the Jazz in decades. The only way they would not score was by coughing up the ball (21 turnovers). The Rockets scored 48 points in the third quarter alone, before both teams pulled out their starters soon after the final period started.
The game was unique, but also a continuation of a hot shooting trend that carried over from Hawks and Knicks games. Next up, two home games, against the Cavaliers, and the Grizzlies for the third time this season. Paul is still sidelined, but the rest of the Rockets are ready (Mbah a Moute bumped his knee in the last game, but he’s playing).
Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets Game Trends & Prediction
The spread in the last game hovered around 5 points, so depending on when the bets were taken the Cavaliers either covered or pushed it. They are still not to be trusted at home, where they are just 0-6-1. They’ve split the road games, so they are 2-8-1 ATS overall. Fourth consecutive over has improved their over/under score to 7-4, and it doesn’t matter if they play at home or on the road. They can obviously score, and can’t defend, so it’s going to be a preferred side going forward.
The Houston Rockets had a nice vacation – four days off since the last game against the Jazz, which had no problems covering. They are on a three-game win streak, and have covered in each three. The Rockets last four games ended over the projected total points line, so they have two nice streaks building. Overall, the Rockets are 6-5 against the spread and 5-6 on the over/under. It’s no secret that both of these scores are mainly affected by their three-point percentage for a night.
Admi-Rank: As long as the Cavs don’t fix the broken defense, they’ll likely stay under the NBA average. This means that they’ll struggle to get into the playoffs. You may doubt this, but this doesn’t change the fact that they are playing worse than at least 8 Eastern teams. Houston is running high at the moment, but this mark I can see changed more easily, as the Rockets never seemed to be able to hold a good form for long.
With Cleveland Cavaliers allowing league-worst 42 percent from the three-point range to their opponents, and the Rockets coming into the game steaming hot, the most likely outcome is not overly cheerful for the visiting team. After all the talk about focusing on the defense, and no results to show, I’m not buying it anymore. The Cavaliers are unable to fix their defense right now, and whatever they come up with will have as much of an effect on the Rockets shooting as whether they slept well or not. However, long layoffs for hot teams aren’t ideal. We’ve seen it before – a team cools off having too many days in between the games, and this season, teams are getting bigger breaks than ever. We’ve also seen it with the Rockets. Gordon, Ariza, and Anderson are fine shooters, but if Harden can’t hit shots, it spreads around the team and the Rockets die by the three. On the flip side, if they are not playing their nemesis (the Grizzlies), Houston is 8-1 this season. Good luck trying to beat them at their own ball game.
The bookies aren’t showing much respect for the Rockets with a spread of just 5.5 points. With everything said and by looking at my number, it’s a clear-cut home wager to beat Cleveland by at least 6 points. I believe the main reason for such a good price on the home side lies in the fact that the Cavs did play much better on the road, and that the books are guarding themselves against the flurry of moneyline bets on them by fading the price. To our benefit. Total line is set at 228 points – no surprises here. My fair number is at 231.5, but it’s not enough to take the over, as it’s a risky proposition at such high lines – a single quarter of cold shooting may down your bet, and it’s not out of question. Instead, focus on the spread wager.
My Pick: Houston -5.5 (-110)
Total: (no total points wager here)
