The Denver Nuggets (35-29) challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers (37-26) at Pepsi Center. The game will air on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 7, 2018.
Denver is a 2-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 230 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Cavaliers will be hoping for a similar outcome after thoroughly outplaying the Detroit Pistons in their last outing, 112-90. The Cavaliers, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.8, had a mark of 25.6, while the Pistons had a free throw rate of 0.115 (below their season average of 0.170). Larry Nance Jr. played a key role for Cleveland with 22 points and 15 rebounds.
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they lost to the Dallas Mavericks, 118-107. Dallas’ effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.561 (above their season average of 0.515), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.473 (below their season average of 0.534). Denver’s Will Barton finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in the contest.
Denver should have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. The Nuggets rank sixth in offensive efficiency, while Cleveland ranks 28th in defensive efficiency.
Cleveland holds records of 37-26 straight up (SU) and 20-42-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Cavaliers games, with 32 overs compared to 30 unders.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 35-29 SU and 29-31-3 ATS. Contrary to Cleveland, just over half of Nuggets games have finished under the projected point total.
Barton has averaged 21.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.4 assists over the last five games for Denver.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Gary Harris scored a game-high 32 points in the first game, in which the Nuggets, who were 4-point underdogs, beat the Cavaliers 126-117. The game finished with a total of 243 points, which was 14.5 points above the projected point total of 228.5 points. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Cleveland. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.657 while the Cavaliers posted a mark of 0.574.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Denver Nuggets Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Cavaliers, ATS Winner – Cavaliers, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Cleveland is 13-17 ATS with 16 overs and 14 unders.
At home, Denver is 17-15-1 ATS with 17 unders and 16 overs.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver is 13-2 and Cleveland is 14-2.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Nuggets are 29-20 and the Cavaliers are 36-14.
Denver averages 24.7 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Cleveland ranks 29th in assists allowed per game (25.8).
The Nuggets average 30.5 three pointers per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Cavaliers rank last in three pointers allowed per game (31.9).
Denver ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while Cleveland ranks 22nd (44.0).
The Nuggets average 49.2 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Cavaliers rank 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (46.2).
Denver ranks fourth in second chance points per game (13.8) while Cleveland ranks 21st (11.5).
The Cavaliers average 16.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 29th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.9).
Cleveland ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while Denver ranks 16th (4.9).
The Cavaliers average 12.3 fast break points per game, which ranks 13th in the league. The Nuggets rank 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Cleveland is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Denver is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Cavaliers have been outscored by an average of 1.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Cleveland has defeated opponents by an average of 0.3 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 115.0 points per game (6.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.6 points per game (7.9 above their season average).
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