The Oklahoma City Thunder (12-7) challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers (4-15) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Ohio at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 28, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 216 points with Oklahoma City set as a 13-point favorite.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction
The Cavaliers were unable to cover as 6-point underdogs in their 102-95 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves in their last game. The total points for the game (197) were well under the projected point total of 214. Minnesota’s 7.8 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Cleveland, who had a rate of 14.8. The Timberwolves’ mark was better than their season average of 11.9. Cleveland’s Tristan Thompson put together a solid performance, contributing 16 points and 11 rebounds.
In the Thunder’s last matchup, they lost to the Denver Nuggets, 105-98, despite being 6-point favorites. The game’s total points (203) came in under the O/U total of 217. Denver’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over Oklahoma City. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.179 (below their season average of 0.183), while the Thunder posted a mark of 0.146 (below their season average of 0.192). With 24 points on 8-for-21 shooting, Paul George was the top scorer from either team.
Oklahoma City could have their way on defense as they clash against one of the NBA’s worst offenses. The Thunder currently rank fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.505), while Cleveland is 26th in effective field goal percentage (0.499). Also, the Cavaliers rank 21st in turnover percentage (14.2 percent), while the Thunder rank first in opponents’ turnover percentage (16.4 percent).
Cleveland holds records of 4-15 straight up (SU) and 10-9 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Cavaliers tend to finish under the O/U total (57.9 percent).
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 12-7 SU and 11-8 ATS. Coinciding with Cleveland, games including the Thunder also tend to finish under the total (57.9 percent).
Thompson and Collin Sexton have played at a high level over the last five games for Cleveland. Thompson has averaged 13 points,12.6 rebounds,1.8 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Sexton has put up 21 points a game during that span.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Dennis Schroder scored a game-high 28 points and the Thunder defeated the Cavaliers 95-86, covering as 6.5-point favorites. He also recorded 7 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 181 points, which was 35 points below the projected point total of 216 points. The Thunder had a better free throw rate (0.214 vs. 0.124) and had a much better turnover percentage (11.2 vs. 16.7).
Cavaliers at Thunder Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Cavaliers, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Cleveland is 6-3 ATS with 5 unders and 4 overs.
Oklahoma City is 5-5 ATS at home with 6 overs and 4 unders.
Cleveland is 1-2 when they allow less than 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 3-0.
When scoring over 100 points, the Cavaliers are 4-8 and the Thunder are 10-3.
Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (21.7) while Cleveland ranks 25th (14.5).
The Thunder rank sixth in fast break points per game (15.5) while the Cavaliers rank 26th (10.5).
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (10.6) while Cleveland ranks 20th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
The Thunder rank seventh in points in the paint per game (51.8) while the Cavaliers rank 26th (42.5).
Oklahoma City ranks third in rebounds per game (48.5) while Cleveland ranks 21st (43.8).
The Thunder rank 13 in three pointers attempted per game (31.789473684210527) while the Cavaliers rank last (23.94736842105263).
Oklahoma City ranks 17 in blocks per game (5.315789473684211) while Cleveland ranks 28 (2.526315789473684).
The Thunder rank 1 in second chance points per game (17.42105263157895) while the Cavaliers rank 10 in second chance points allowed per game (12.578947368421053).
Oklahoma City ranks 23 in assists per game (21.894736842105264) while Cleveland ranks 27 (19.57894736842105).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Cleveland is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Cavaliers’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.8, down from 6.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 110.6 points per game (0.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.2 points per game (1.3 below their season average).
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