Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Trevor Bauer (3-1, 3.31 ERA) and the Cleveland Indians (19-23) go up against Johnny Cueto (3-4, 3.03 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (18-24) in the last of a three-game series at Progressive Field. The Indians won the last game 2-1, extending a five-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 24 and will air on FSN-OH and STO.
In his last start, Bauer pitched 7.1 innings, giving up one run, striking out seven and walking three in a 3-1 victory over the White Sox. Jason Kipnis (.341, 31 Rs, 4 HRs, 20 RBIs, 5 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI. In his career against the Indians, Cueto is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts. Joey Votto (.289, 18 Rs, 7 HRs, 21 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Cleveland is a considerable -180 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Indians are 11-14 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -868. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (4-1). Cleveland has averaged 3.2 runs per game during interleague play, lower than its season average of 4.4. They have been very patient at the plate, leading the AL with an average of 3.8 walks per game. Cleveland’s pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 2.9 during that span, compared to its 4.6 season average. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the AL with 9.7 strikeouts per game.
Across the field, the Reds have a subpar record of 8-16 when they are the underdog and are -497 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 3-7 SU and have a poor 0-5 record when they were an underdog to win. The Reds have not played up to par on offense against the AL. Cincinnati has averaged 3.2 runs per game, less than their 3.8 season average. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 44 stolen bases. Cincinnati’s pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play AL opponents. They’ve allowed an average of 5.5 runs per game against teams from the AL, higher than their season average of 4.6.
So far this season, the Indians are 2-0 against the Reds. This game will feature Cueto (RHP) on the mound against the Indians, who have an 11-13 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Reds will be the right-hander Bauer. They sport a 14-17 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – CLE, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 35% (6-11) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cleveland has won 44% (7-9) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Indians are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 0-3 record when opponents give up that many walks.
This game has the potential to be a major blowout, as the Indians are coming in on a five-game winning streak whereas the Reds have lost their past seven.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 11-5. The Indians have a 15-3 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 27th in runs, Cincinnati has earned 158 this season. Cleveland ranks 13th with 181 runs.
Ranking 12th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 137 this season. Cleveland ranks in the top five at second with 160.
When the Indians hit at least one home run, they are 15-11, well-matched with the Reds who are 16-11 when hitting one or more homers.
