Danny Salazar (12-8, 3.54 ERA) and the Cleveland Indians (68-70) meet Alfredo Simon (12-9, 4.86 ERA) and the Detroit Tigers (64-75) in the first of a four-game division series at Progressive Field. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 10 and will air on STOh and FSDT.
In his most recent outing, Salazar pitched 3.2 innings, giving up six runs, striking out one and walking one in a 6-0 loss to the Tigers. Jason Kipnis (.308, 77 Rs, 7 HRs, 46 RBIs, 11 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one RBI. The Tigers were victorious over the Indians 6-0 the last time Simon pitched. He went 7.0 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out five and walking four. Miguel Cabrera (.351, 58 Rs, 17 HRs, 68 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 2 yesterday.
Cleveland is a considerable -207 favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is eight runs. The Indians are 45-42 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,383. They have disappointing records of 13-24 as the favorite and 21-33 SU within their division. The Indians are an exceptional hitting team with 9.2 hits per home game, one of the highest marks in the AL. They have been very patient at the plate, ranking third in the AL with an average of 3.4 walks per game. Cleveland’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Indians have given up an average of 4.6 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 4.1. The Indians don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking third in the league with a 1.19 WHIP. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the AL with 8.8 strikeouts per game.
Switching gears, the Tigers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .400 when playing as the underdog (30-45) and an overall money line of -951. Against divisional rivals, they are 32-24 SU, but have a 12-16 record when they were an underdog to win. The Tigers rank third in the AL in road scoring, averaging four runs per game. The top road hitting team in the AL are the Tigers, who average 9.4 hits in games away from home. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Detroit pitchers. They allowed 7.9 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 5.0.
The Tigers have gotten the better of the Indians in head-to-head matchups this season, going 10-5. The Indians will take on a right-hander (Simon) in this game and have a 48-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Salazar will take the mound against the Tigers, who have a 45-59 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Cle, O/U – Over
Notes
Detroit has won 46% (29-34) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cleveland has won 48% (21-23) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Tigers are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Indians have an 8-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Tigers are 53-17. The Indians have a 58-11 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Cleveland is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 563 this season. Detroit ranks in the top half at 11th with 601.
Ranking 18th, Detroit is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 380 this season. Cleveland ranks in the top five at fifth with 462.
The Indians are 50-28 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Tigers are 48-34 when they hit at least one homer.
