Carlos Carrasco (10-6, 3.88 ERA) and Dallas Keuchel (10-3, 2.03 ERA) take the hill in the first of a four-game series between the Cleveland Indians (38-43) and the Houston Astros (48-36) at Progressive Field. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jul. 6 and can be seen on ROOT-SW and STO.
Carrasco pitched 8.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out 13 and walking two in an 8-1 win over the Rays. Jason Kipnis (.341, 56 Rs, 6 HRs, 35 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. Against the Indians, Keuchel is 2-0 with a 1.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts. Jose Altuve (.301, 42 Rs, 7 HRs, 35 RBIs, 24 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one stolen base.
Cleveland is a -128 favorite against Houston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Indians have an overall money line of -1,299 and a record as the favorite of 25-27. Cleveland is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 6-4 SU record in its last ten outings. Cleveland leads the whole AL in walks at home, earning an average of 4.0 per game. Cleveland’s pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 2.9 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.3. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Indians, who lead the AL in strikeouts per game with 9.3.
In games where it is the underdog, Houston has a 24-17 record and an overall money line of +1,069. Offensively, they average four runs per game on the road, which is second in the AL. The Astros are tough outs for opponents, ranking third in the AL with 9.0 hits per road game. The Astros are an excellent base stealing team with 68 stolen bases, ranking third in the MLB. Houston’s pitching staff is one of the top in the AL at pitching on the road, with a 3.81 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Astros are one of the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.19 for the season.
The Indians lead the season series, 2-1. The Indians have a 12-19 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Keuchel takes the mound. Carrasco (RHP) will be on the hill against the Astros, who have a 31-19 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston recorded at least two errors for the 11th time this season.
The Astros are 4-3 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Indians are 2-2 in such matchups.
The Astros managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Indians who are heading in with an 11-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 34-9. The Indians have a 31-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 19th, Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 325 this season. Houston ranks in the top five at second with 379.
Ranking seventh, Houston is in the top 10 of the league in walks, notching 261 this season. Cleveland ranks in the top five at second with 290.
The Indians are 30-17 when they hit at least one home run. The Astros perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 38-21 record.
