Don’t expect a high-scoring game when the Cleveland State Vikings (7-14) travel to Valparaiso to play the Crusaders (17-4). The game gets underway at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday, Jan. 28 and will air on ES3.
The Crusaders won big over Northern Kentucky 71-46 on Sunday. Shane Hammink had a good game, contributing 14 points, two rebounds, and one block for the Crusaders. The Vikings are coming off a 70-55 loss at the hands of Youngstown State on Sunday. Demonte Flannigan had a game-high 18 points.
The Valparaiso defense should have a clear edge in terms of eFG%. It ranks sixth in the nation in forcing misses (opponents’ eFG% of 42.5%), while the Cleveland State offense is 311th with a mark of 46.2%. Furthermore, the 316th-ranked offense of the Vikings (offensive efficiency of 96.1) will face a tough test against the first-ranked defense of the Crusaders (defensive efficiency of 87.1).
Valparaiso is a considerable 21-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is 122 points. The Crusaders enter the game with records of 17-4 Straight Up (SU) and 11-7 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games. Valparaiso has been steady from the free throw line, shooting a stellar .732. Valparaiso has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 42.0 rebounds per game. Transitioning to the Valparaiso defense, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Crusaders, who allow only 60.0 points per game. Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Crusaders, who allow a field goal percentage of only .371.
On the other side, the Vikings head into the game with records of 8-11 ATS and 7-14 SU.
This is the first meeting of the season for Valparaiso and Cleveland State. The last time they played, Valparaiso came out on top, moving its SU record against Cleveland State to 7-3 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. The Crusaders also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. Both Valparaiso and Cleveland State have led in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups.
Predictions: SU Winner – Valpo, ATS Winner – Valpo, O/U – Under
Notes
Valparaiso is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Valparaiso’s last 6 games.
Valparaiso is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Valparaiso’s last 5 games at home.
Valparaiso is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland State.
Valparaiso is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland State.
Valparaiso holds a 7-1 SU record against the Horizon Conference this season, while Cleveland State has an abysmal 2-6 SU record against the conference.
Cleveland State averages 62.7 points per game, placing the team just 339th in the nation. Valparaiso ranks fourth in points allowed, giving up 60.0 points per game.
In its last game, Valparaiso won by a margin of 25 points. Cleveland State is 1-3 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Valparaiso has a 9-0 record in blowouts.
The Valparaiso Crusaders have the nation’s top defense, with a defensive rating of 87.1. The Cleveland State Vikings have an offensive rating of 96.1 (ranked 316th).
Cleveland State has an average field goal percentage of 41.1%. Valparaiso is an even 4-4 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Valparaiso Crusaders rank lower for their field goal percentage (188th) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (160th), but the Cleveland State Vikings have a better FG% ranking (305th) than eFG% ranking (311th).
Ranked 12th in the nation, Valparaiso averages 42.0 rebounds per game. Cleveland State ranks lower at 294th with 33.9 RPG.
Cleveland State ranks 141st in offensive rebounds, while Valparaiso ranks at seventh in defensive rebounds.
On average, Cleveland State forces a turnover rate of 20.7%. When Valparaiso turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a solid 5-2 record.
