Of the five other teams Kaepernick could have signed with that don’t have a starter-level guy, the jury is still out on Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars. I think he can jump up into that starter tier now that he has a real, NFL coach. I’ve not written off Brock Osweiler with the Cleveland Browns either and neither has Hue Jackson after taking him for a test drive.
As for the other three teams, the Buffalo Bills seem content to give Tyrod Taylor one more shot at securing the QB job, the New York Jets are tanking the season and Kaepernick’s old team, the 49ers… well, I don’t know what the hell they’re doing. I’m not sure they do.
Is Kaepernick a “starter in this league?” Many have attested that he is, including Pete Carroll, a guy who didn’t sign him when he had an opening at back up quarterback.
Again, yes and no. Yes, in that there are 32 teams and they all have to field a quarterback. No in that he would not be in the same class as those 22 legitimate NFL starters, nor would he give any of the “first round pick” group of teams a reason to make a change.
Kaepernick is what I like to call a “high end back up.” There’s no shame in that. You could be the 30th best actual quarterback in the NFL and never take a regular season snap barring injury. It’s the most difficult position to find and develop talent for in all of professional sports. I’m a firm believer that a quarterback can’t be developed. He can be improved, but guys like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are just born different. To be a great quarterback is to have certain innate abilities that cannot be coached. They can only be discovered.
What is a high end back up? He’s a guy that can win games in the NFL. He can start when your main quarterback is injured and still give you a chance at keeping your season together. In the right situation, a high end back up can go to a Super Bowl. Hell, if the stars are aligned he can even win one. It’s why Trent Dilfer has a ring.
There are two types of high end back ups. The first are guys like Kaepernick and Dilfer, men who have topped out their skill level, but can still win football games. The second kind are up can coming players sitting behind entrenched NFL starters like Jimmy Garappolo in New England and Bret Hundley in Green Bay. These guys are on the upswing. They have a bright future and are just stuck on a depth chart for now.
Who are the other high end back ups in the league right now? Matt Moore in Miami, Taylor with the Bills (even though he’s starting), A.J. McCarron in Cincinnati, Matt Cassel in Tennessee, Drew Stanton in Arizona, Matt Shaub in Atlanta, Derek Anderson in Carolina, Mike Glennon in Chicago (again, even though he’s slated as the starter), Trevor Siemian in Denver (and he may end up starting again too), Kellen Clemens with the Chargers, Nick Foles in Philadelphia, Ryan Fitzpatrick in Tampa Bay, Colt McCoy in Washington, Austin Davis with the Seahawks and Chase Daniel with the Saints.
That list should tell you a few things about how good a shape the league is actually in. All but three of those high end back ups are on teams with established starters firmly entrenched in that “legit 22.” Good teams know they need that kind of elite back up and make sure they keep one. In all honesty, the class of 2017 NFL quarterback club is easily the most talented group in the history of the NFL. And still, only 22 of them are starting caliber.
I won’t pretend like you don’t see Austin Davis’ name up there. I’m not going to let that sit there without comment. Just give me a second.
We still have three high end back ups available in free agency besides Kaepernick. You have Robert Griffin II, Shaun Hill and Christian Ponder all still looking for a job. Ponder and RG3 are definitely primed and ready to join another NFL team and continue their career. I’m not sure Hill hasn’t actually retired and no one has officially said anything.
Taking everything I’ve shown you up until now, it should be clear that there are only two NFL teams that have an opening for a starting quarterback of Kaepernick’s ability and one of them is the 49ers, the team that just cut him. The other is the Jets, who are actively trying to tank the season. Adding Kaepernick to their roster would actually help them. They don’t want that.
Since he’s a high end back up, however, he should be able to land on a team in that capacity, right? Well, as I’ve already shown you plenty of teams already have that spot filled with a guy they like who can run their system and win games. Maybe Kaepernick might be better from a pure physical tools standpoint than a guy like Drew Stanton in Arizona, but if you watch football at all you know Stanton is entrenched, beloved and has the team behind him 100 percent when forced to take the field. There’s actually not a lot of drop off between him and Carson Palmer. The Cardinals count on it because Palmer always seems to miss a game or two each season.
Same for Derek Anderson in Carolina. While outwardly the Panthers might look like an ideal place for Kaepernick to take his talents, there’s no way he’d beat Anderson out. Anderson has won key games for the Panthers when Cam Newton has been hurt. Anderson is the reason the Panthers made the playoffs in 2014.
If you can look at that list and honestly believe that Kaepernick could run Atlanta’s offense better than Matt Schaub or Tampa’s better than Ryan Fitzpatrick, I just know you don’t watch football.
Well, you may incredulously ask, what about Seattle and Austin Davis? Surely Kaepernick is better than that guy? Well, no. And don’t call me Shirley. I could explain it all out, but I’ll let Pro Football Focus do it for me.
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