Breaking down potential seed lines for the NCAA Tournament is as fickle of a process as there is in college basketball analytics. Teams are rising and falling daily, and it seems to be more unstable than ever–at least if we’re speaking about non-Kentucky and non-Virginia squads–this year.
Parity is abound in college basketball, and it has helped build a fluid list of bubble teams. Some resumes will be bolstered by their schedules, and others by early season big wins. Others will be bogged down by inexcusable losses.
Here, we take a look at some of the prime candidates for the Bubble, and whether or not they’d be in the field of 68 if the tournament started today.
1.) Syracuse: After being featured in our feature covering upsets last weekend, we’re ready to once again break down the Orange. In that article, I said that Syracuse didn’t look to be in too much danger of missing the tournament; I’m ready to back off that stance a bit here.
Looking ahead, they still have games against Miami, North Carolina, Duke (twice), Louisville, Virginia and Notre Dame, with three of those being on the road. As usual, there are two ways to look at that slate. On one hand, Syracuse has a legitimate chance of going 2-5 or 1-6 in those games, meaning that they’d be looking at a best case scenario of 21-10 or 20-11, without any other losses on the year. Depending on who their one or two wins come against there, they’d be sweating come conference tournament time.
On the other hand, the Orange have plenty of chances to get marquee wins on their resume against that ACC schedule. It’s not tough to imagine them picking off two of Miami, North Carolina and Louisville, especially with two of them being at home. The key for them, as with everyone, will be avoiding let downs against the bottom half of the ACC. Pick: In
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2.) BYU: Every year we are talking about BYU and its spot on the bubble, and this year is no different. The Cougars have played a competitive schedule with names like San Diego State, Utah, and Stanford in the non-conference. While they picked up a good win over Stanford, that is their only “Good Win” on the year, and it’s tough to argue for it outweighing a loss to Pepperdine. All their other losses thus far have been of the quality variety, but here’s where it gets tough for BYU…
Where are the opportunities for good wins? Well, they just lost one by falling to Saint Mary’s, though they do get the Gaels at home on Feb. 12. After that, it’s the season finale against Gonzaga that looks to be all that’s left. It’s reasonable to think that they could be 24-6 heading into the matchup against the Zags. A win there, and they’d have to feel confident. But, conference road games are difficult anywhere, and I’d expect them to drop another one before then. This team is still dying for a good win. Pick: Out
3.) Wyoming: I love the Cowboys, and have made no secret about that here. The computers don’t share my enthusiasm for them however, and a lot of it has to do with the fact that their schedule is ranked in the bottom-third of the country.
Still though, when looking through their RPI numbers, we see that Wyoming is 4-2 against the RPI Top 100. No, that’s nothing to scoff at, but what’s most troubling for this team’s chances is the schedule that lies ahead.
They have just three games remaining against RPI Top 100 teams–though, one of those teams in UNLV, who comes in an No. 97 and has little chance of remaining there for long–a home tilt against rival Colorado State and a trip to San Diego State. I’d expect them to beat the Rams in Laramie, sweeping the season series, but I don’t envision this team going into Viejas and leaving with a win over the Aztecs. At that point, it’s on to watching for possible letdowns with a schedule that features six games against teams with an RPI worse than 150. This team can’t afford that. And if Colorado continues to struggle, that win won’t be a Top 100 win for long, either. Pick: Out
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4.) Southern Methodist: After an inconsistent year in 2013-2014 that ended with an NIT berth, the Mustangs are clawing their way back from early season struggles in hopes of getting a tournament upgrade. A trendy pick for many people’s national sleeper in the mid-major ranks, a 2-3 start was not exactly expected. They’ve rebounded with five wins against the RPI Top 100, but are still 0-4 against Top 50 teams. For this year’s bubble, 4-5 against the Top 100 should keep you in the conversation, and make you feel pretty good about things at this point.
SMU has six games left against Top 100 opponents, so there are plenty of chances for that record to sort itself out. If they’re sitting around 9-6 come Selection Sunday, I think that will be enough. As for right now, they are the most comfortable team in this group. Pick: In
5.) Ohio State: The Buckeyes are so intriguing for this kind of analysis. On one hand, we know the kind of talent that they have and the kind of coach that they have. This is a program with a pedigree, and as subjective people, it’s always difficult to ignore that. However, their numbers just don’t look very strong right now compared to where we thought they’d be. Ohio State is 4-5 against the RPI Top 100, the same as SMU above, yet they feel to be teetering.
What makes their resume so unimpressive is that they have just one road win. That’s not a typo, as this team only played one true road game through the non-conference and fell to Louisville. From here on out, their only real chance for a marquee win looks to be against Michigan State. That doesn’t bode well for the Buckeyes right now. Pick: Out
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