The college basketball season has passed its preliminary stage and done away with the appetizers. It’s time for the main course, the NCAA Tournament and the procession through the brackets over the course of three weekends. Which teams seeded outside the top four in a given region have the best chance of making the Final Four? Here they are, with one team for each of the four regions:
East: Virginia
This is a reflection of the realization that in late January, Virginia went into Philadelphia and mostly outplayed defending national champion Villanova. Virginia led by double digits at one point and led the Wildcats for most of the game, but the Cavaliers bogged down on offense late in the game and allowed Villanova to slip away. These teams could meet in the Sweet 16, and while Villanova would be motivated by the desire to play better, Virginia will be motivated by the fact that it played very competitively against a great team. Virginia has trouble scoring, but it does not have trouble defending Villanova or any other team. If Virginia can get one or two players to be red-hot scorers during March Madness, it will have a chance to defeat Villanova in the Sweet 16. If it does that, it will be within one win (in the Elite Eight) of making the Final Four. This is a team that has experience, they’ve been here before, they have an excellent coach and they play defense very well. Is it the best Virginia team we’ve seen in years? Definitely not. But they still play very well on defense and if they can generate more offense consistently, they can make a run in the NCAA Tournament.
West: Notre Dame
This is the team which could make noise. The first thing to realize is that the Fighting Irish have made the Elite Eight in each of the last two seasons. They have a coach in Mike Brey who has figured out how to get the most from his team and how to get his team to peak at the right time. That’s what Notre Dame is doing, having reached the championship game of the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn. Notre Dame beat Virginia and Florida State, two very good teams, before losing to Duke in the ACC final. This is a balanced and patient team led by big man Bonzie Colson and point guard Matt Ferrell. No one would be too surprised if Notre Dame beat top-seeded Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament.
South: Wichita State
The Shockers are seeded tenth, but analytics systems have them much more highly rated, generally in the top 25. If Wichita State can get past Dayton in the first round, it would likely meet Kentucky in the second round. Wichita State and Kentucky met in the second round of the 2014 tournament, and UK won. Wichita State would love to get revenge after that afternoon three years ago.
If you take a look at the Pomeroy Rating – one of the most respected tools to evaluate college basketball teams – you’ll see that the Shockers are actually the No. 8 team in the country. However, they are a No. 10. They were easily the biggest mistake made by the Selection Committee. They have the best margin of victory of any team in the country except for Gonzaga, who is a No. 1 seed. The Shockers will have a tougher road to sow since they are a No. 10 seed but they are still good enough to surprise in the NCAA Tournament.
Midwest: Michigan
This is a team which has consistently won over the past few weeks. This team didn’t just win the Big Ten Tournament with victories over Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Michigan spent the latter half of February polishing up its game and being successful in ways which just didn’t emerge in January. Coach John Beilein has gotten this team to turn the corner. As a number seven seed in the Midwest, its presence should be frightening to number two Louisville, a possible second-round opponent. Louisville has been inconsistent most of the season and they could find themselves in trouble here if they aren’t careful.
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