The college basketball season moves into one of the two important weekends before Christmas. After Christmas, you’ll begin to see teams move into conference play, so this is one of the last major opportunities for various teams to collect important non-conference wins and bolster their RPI to the extent that they have more margin for error within their own conferences. Here are three important games on Saturday that are worth paying attention to:
Cincinnati Bearcats @ Butler Bulldogs
College Basketball Odds: Butler -3.5
The Butler Bulldogs discovered how hard it is to win a road game against a mid-major program earlier this week. They lost on the road at Indiana State. This was an in-state game, but Terre Haute was not friendly to Butler, which suffered a jarring loss after a strong start to its regular season. Butler could be rattled by that event, but it’s important to remember that was a road game against an opponent which treated that game as something of a Super Bowl. Now, Butler returns home for this game. Cincinnati has historically struggled to shoot well. The Bearcats depend on rebounding and defense to win games. If Butler has very good energy at home – which is extremely likely – the Bulldogs can keep Cincinnati off the glass and win a lot more possessions. The Bulldogs are the definite pick here. They should bounce back and play with focused anger after the loss to Indiana State.
Pick: Butler -3.5
Utah Utes @ Xavier Musketeers
College Basketball Odds: Xavier -11.5
This is a game similar to what Butler is facing. Another Big East team suffered a frustrating loss earlier in the week, and plays its first game on Saturday since that upsetting moment. Xavier lost on the road against Colorado. This was not an in-state bragging rights game; Xavier could have been affected by playing at altitude, but Colorado also showed the kind of desperation a team needs to display when it knows its NCAA Tournament fate highly depends on the final outcome. This was a perfect convergence of unfavorable circumstances for Xavier, but now the Musketeers get to return home, where the vibe and energy should be very different in ways which will benefit them. It is also worth pointing out that Utah lost to Butler at home a few weeks ago. The Utes were clearly outclassed by the Bulldogs, and Xavier has been projected to finish ahead of Butler in the Big East standings once conference play begins.
It’s hard to see Utah’s path to victory here. Xavier should control the whole game.
Pick: Xavier -11.5
Michigan Wolverines @ UCLA Bruins
College Basketball Odds: UCLA -9
The No. 2 UCLA Bruins are coming off their biggest win of the season, so the question is how focused will they be when they face Michigan on Saturday? Will they still be basking in their victory over the No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats or will they have moved on and shifted their focus accordingly to the Michigan Wolverines?
It’s true that UCLA probably won’t continue to shoot the three-point shot as well as it’s been shooting it this season. The Bruins have five different players who are hitting at least 40 percent of their three-point shots at the moment. They shredded Kentucky’s defense a week ago in Rupp Arena. However, even if their three-point shooting slumps at all, it’s not as if the Wolverines will beat them badly from that range. The Wolverines three-point field goal percentage is 34.9. If that was to hold, that would be their worst ever in the John Beilein era. The problem is that they still shoot a lot of them; over 45% of their shots are from beyond the arc. This doesn’t figure to be a winning battle for them unless they get uncharacteristically hot at Pauley Pavilion.
As for the Bruins, they are currently functioning at an extremely high level and are sharing the ball in ways that prevent opposing defenses from closing down their shooters. UCLA is balanced and versatile to the point that a struggling Michigan offense doesn’t seem very likely to keep up, especially in a road game. Go with the Bruins here against the spread.
Pick: UCLA -9
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