On Saturday, one game will tower above the rest in college basketball, and in that game, a highly-ranked team will be on upset watch. In a second game, another top-25 matchup could be thorny for the higher-ranked team. In other instances, teams outside the top 15 – therefore not as certain in terms of being among the nation’s elite – are quite vulnerable, although one is playing at home and the other on the road.
#11 UCLA @ #1 Kentucky
Saturday, 12:30 PM ET
UCLA is off to a very strong start behind freshman Lonzo Ball, a gifted passer who has given structure and continuity to the UCLA offense. The Bruins are functioning a lot better than they had in the previous few seasons thanks to Ball’s court vision and unselfishness. This makes UCLA a definite threat to the number one team in the country. Kentucky handled Michigan State, but it didn’t face too many other big tests in the first two and a half weeks of the season. December begins a stretch of challenging games, and this one against UCLA is first in line. De’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, and Edrice Adebayo will get to show what they are made of against a team which is playing confidently and fluidly. Playing at Rupp Arena in Lexington should help, but UCLA is playing well enough to pull off the surprise. It’s a fascinating matchup. Ultimately, trust Kentucky to make use of home-court advantage and to play with the energy it needs to win big.
Taking a look at the betting lines, Kentucky opened at -10 -115 and while the line has dropped to -9.5 during the week, it then returned to -10. The total for this contest opened up at 171.5.
College Basketball Pick: Kentucky
Oklahoma at #17 Wisconsin
Saturday, 1:00 PM ET
Buddy Hield and several other Oklahoma upperclassmen have moved on. Graduation and the NBA Draft have both taken away a lot of the Sooners’ experience from last season. This is why Oklahoma will be an underdog on the road on Saturday at Wisconsin. The Badgers are the veteran team Oklahoma was a year ago. Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig, Ethan Happ – they’re all back from last season, pursuing a Final Four. Playing at home, they should be in good shape after going to Maui for an arduous three-day tournament against Tennessee, Georgetown and North Carolina.
Oklahoma has Jordan Woodard, a smart and tough point guard, but the Sooners will need younger and less proven players to lift them to the road upset. Wisconsin’s loss to North Carolina is the kind of loss which generally makes a good team learn from its shortcomings. Expect Wisconsin to be more than ready for this game.
The Badgers opened this contest up as a 9.5-point favorite and the line has bounced between -9 and -9.5 throughout most of the week. The total for this showdown opened up at 135.5.
College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin
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#25 West Virginia @ #6 Virginia
Saturday, 2:00 PM ET
West Virginia managed to force just over 40 turnovers in a recent game against Manhattan. West Virginia is bothersome on defense, but questions remain about its halfcourt offense on the game nights when it doesn’t force many turnovers. Virginia is a disciplined team which generally doesn’t commit turnovers. The Cavaliers are also excellent on defense. They don’t make many mistakes at either end of the court. Virginia matches up well with West Virginia. Moreover, coming back from a large halftime deficit to beat Ohio State on Wednesday should give Virginia the confidence it needs to play well here. Take Virginia in this spot. They opened up as an eight-point favorite and should be able to cover that number at the end of the day.
College Basketball Pick: Virginia
#21 Rhode Island @ Providence
Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
This is the best actual upset proposition. Providence beat Memphis and is very good at applying on-ball pressure up and down the floor. The Friars might lack the star power of last season’s group, but they have shown they are not going to be a pushover. Playing at home in an in-state rivalry game, they have an excellent chance of toppling a Rhode Island team which is very good, but will likely need to take some lumps along the way. Go with Providence.
College Basketball Pick: Providence
