The college basketball season is a week and a half into March. The conference tournaments are well underway. Selection Sunday is just two days away. The time for the announcement of the brackets is almost here. This is the final pre-March Madness survey of the college basketball top five. Where do teams stand, especially in relationship to the most important topic of the moment, the four number one seeds across the four regions?
1. Villanova Wildcats
The Wildcats are now the top overall seed, because we said last week that if Kansas lost before the final of the Big 12 Tournament, the outlook could change. That is exactly what has happened, with Kansas falling to TCU in the Big 12 quarterfinals. Villanova is in the Big East Tournament semifinals and, with a tournament title, should leapfrog Kansas for the overall top spot. There is no drama about Villanova and Kansas both being number one seeds in the NCAA Tournament – those are locks. It’s merely a matter of which team will be the top overall seed. Villanova, with two more wins on the weekend, will get it.
2. Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks did indeed lose before the final of the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City, so if they want the top overall seed, they will need Villanova to lose in the Big East Tournament. The big problem for Kansas in that regard: The No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 seeds lost in the Big East quarterfinals on Thursday. The second semifinal of the tournament has the No. 6 and 7 seeds. Villanova plays fifth-seeded Seton Hall in the first semifinal on Friday night. Villanova is an overwhelming favorite to be the Big East Tournament champion, which would probably do the trick for VU, as shown above. Still, we have the Jayhawks pegged as the second-best team in the country. They won the Big 12 and the Big 12 tournament didn’t necessarily mean a whole lot to them.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels
This is where the top seeds get more interesting and complicated. The Tar Heels would have been a number one seed in the South Region had they beat Duke but now there is room for argument and a shift on the big board after they lost to Duke Friday in the ACC semifinals. The loss creates a vacuum which other teams could fill. If UCLA or Arizona beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament final, the possibility exists that that team could jump up to a number one seed. There might even be a chance for Kentucky to climb to the top spot, but that seems more remote. The Pac-12 offers the biggest threat right now.
Even so, those are mostly semantics in our view. The Tar Heels are still the third-best team in the country based on their body of work this season. Losing to Duke doesn’t change that.
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Zags managed to win the WCC Tournament, which should put them as the top seed in the West, but one potential obstacle remains: Oregon could jump the Bulldogs if it wins the Pac-12 Tournament. The Ducks might be the second seed in the West Region behind Gonzaga if they win the Pac-12 tourney, but the selection committee could assign enough weight to that achievement that it will elevate Oregon above Gonzaga. That’s not likely, though: Gonzaga beat Arizona, Iowa State, Florida, and other quality teams out of the conference. Those wins will hold up – at least, they should.
5. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks, should they win the Pac-12 Tournament, have the best chance of any team to uproot Gonzaga from the top line in the West Region. That has not changed. First is California in the Pac-12 semifinals, but then comes the big one against the UCLA Bruins or Arizona Wildcats. The value of beating a heavyweight team could give the Ducks the boost which would push them past Gonzaga. Among the big teams this season, they have been one of the most underrated college basketball teams in the country and that should be a good thing for them as they enter the NCAA Tournament.
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