In the final weekend of play before the majority of conference tournaments begin next week, the sense of urgency for NCAA tournament hopefuls has never been higher.
This weekend’s edition of Picks to Click features five Bubble squads looking to either secure a key win or avoid a costly loss.
Georgia at Auburn: After giving Kentucky all they wanted in Athens, Mark Fox’s group heads on the road to take on Bruce Pearl and the Tigers. Auburn is by no means an elite SEC foe, but as we’ve said here before, conference road wins are never to be taken for granted. When you take the nation’s top team down to the wire but fail to finish the job, there’s always a chance for an emotional hangover, especially when you’re away from home.
The key for the Bulldogs here is to get Nemanja Djurisic involved early, while letting Marcus Thornton and Kenny Gaines get theirs in the flow of the game. Controlling the rebounding battle while avoiding open court turnovers would certainly help their cause as well. In the end, I think Fox has his team focused on the task at hand, and UGA avoids a devastating resume blemish. Pick: Georgia
Oklahoma State at No. 20 West Virginia: The Cowboys have lost four of their last five games, yet their RPI number remains in the top 40, certainly in the “comfortable” range when it comes to an tournament berth. Then why does it feel like Travis Ford and company could use a big win here? Conference tournaments are always breeding grounds for chaos, and finishing the season with six potential losses in the final seven games might be enough to break hearts in Stillwater.
We know that Morgantown is one of the most difficult places to play in the Big 12, and with the Mountaineers returning home after a narrow loss in Lawrence, I trust Bob Huggins and company to be fully prepared. The key will be what kind of production they can get from Juwan Staten–assuming he plays after missing the last two games–and how they defend OSU’s dynamic duo of Nash and Forte. In the end, I believe the ‘Eers get it done. Pick: West Virginia
Michigan State at Indiana: Tom Crean’s group has gotten the full Bubble experience this season, going on and off on what has felt like a weekly basis. Thanks to two straight losses to Northwestern and Iowa, the Hoosiers have seen their RPI numbers dip into the 50s, and might be in a position where protecting their home court is necessary for a spot in the Big Dance.
Any time you play Michigan State, rebounding will be a huge part of the game. Tom Izzo’s crew crashes the boards with reckless abandon, but defensively, they have a habit of putting the opposition on the line at a prolific rate. If the Hoosiers can draw a few early fouls on the MSU front court, as well as convert once they’re at the free throw line, IU will be in good shape. Pick: Indiana
Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech: Like Georgia, Miami will be hoping to avoid a back breaking road loss to a lowly conference opponent. Unlike the Bulldogs, Miami will have more work to do even with a win here. The Hurricanes sit at No. 65 in the RPI rankings, far from a place of comfort, and may even be without Angel Rodriguez and Sheldon McClellan in Blacksburg.
This game will be all about toughness, grit and composure for UM. Can they dig in and get stops when they need them? Can they chase down a loose ball and get into transition for some easy looks? Can they grab a key defensive rebound as the clock winds down? For this weekend, I say no. Pick: Virginia Tech
Alabama at Texas A&M: With the recent decline of LSU, the Aggies suddenly find themselves sporting a resume that lacks a single RPI top 50 win. Sure, they have seven wins against the RPI top 100, but is that going to be enough for them? The answer is obviously just over a week away, but beating ‘Bama at home would give them their eighth Top 100 win, and put them into a position where a win or two in the SEC Tournament could do them wonders.
Most times, Senior Day is always a tough situation to walk into if you’re a visiting opponent. However Texas A&M’s top threats, Danuel House and Jalen Jones are both juniors, and might not have the same kind of emotion and intensity as a graduating Senior. Okay, yeah, we’ve grasping at straws here. Pick: Texas A&M
