Bubble teams across the country had a chance to avoid letdowns against lesser opponents over the weekend. Some succeeded, but others were not so lucky. In our weekly wrap up of the weekend’s upsets, we look at a quartet of squads and analyze whether or not they can be trusted, going forward.
Syracuse
Losing Chris McCullough hurts this team, and it’s reasonable to think that he could have helped the Orange avoid a loss to Clemson. But there are more issues with this team than a missing freshman, no matter how talented he is. Syracuse isn’t explosive offensively, and outside of Trevor Cooney, there’s no one to trust shooting the ball from the outside. Rakeem Christmas is a beast, there’s no doubt about it. But, college basketball is about guard play, as those guards still have to feed Christmas the ball in prime spots.
Right now, Syracuse has one good win over Iowa on their resume, with losses to Cal, St. John’s and Michigan looking less and less as the year has gone on. Add Clemson to the mix, and this team’s resume continues to look weak when put up against their at-large comrades. Do we think they’re in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament? No, but there’s work to be done for this team to be fully comfortable and seen as a threat to anyone.
St. John’s
Things keep getting worse for Steve Lavin, as his group is now 1-4 in Big East play, and just 12-5 overall. Losing to DePaul, despite being on the road and against a surprise team in the conference, is the latest in a string of disappointing results for the Red Storm that have to leave fans feeling like Lavin just may never be able to turn things around in Queens. It also leaves St. John’s in a precarious position in the Big East standings. They’ve lost four of their last five games and are only .5-games ahead of winless Creighton in conference.
As for the NCAA Tournament, is it reasonable that this team could miss the Dance? Looking ahead at their schedule, I see at least six losses, with the possibility for more–in fairness, they could get back to their winning ways and find a way to cut that number down. Would an 11-or-12 loss St. John’s team have much of a leg to stand on come Selection Sunday? Let’s see how wins against Minnesota and Syracuse look at that time, and we should know.
Arkansas
There’s no question that the Razorbacks are one of the most effective offensive teams in the country, with big man Bobby Portis being one of the least talked about, yet most talented players in the country. But while giving up 96 points to Ole Miss, at home and all in regulation, they reminded many national pundits why they absolutely cannot be trusted this season. Their defense is intensely inconsistent, having given up more than 90 points twice already this season, neither time against stellar competition.
Arkansas has a number of good wins, over the likes of SMU, Dayton and Georgia. Their losses against Clemson, Tennessee and Ole Miss though don’t help their cause. Still, they’ve looked like one of the top three teams in the SEC, and with the weak bubble that we’re looking at nationally, they should feel comfortable.
Baylor
There’s no debating it: Kansas State needed this win, badly. The Wildcats were trending not just out of the tournament, but out of the conversation of Big 12 relevance. To combat that, they got a gritty win over Baylor in Manhattan. On the other hand, Baylor follows up a big-time win over Iowa State with yet another perplexing loss. The question is, which of these teams are trending up, if either?
Baylor has a fantastic resume boosting win over the Cyclones, but a win over Texas A&M is the only other victory of any note. Kansas State also has a win over the Aggies, to go along with wins over Oklahoma and now the Bears. Looking forward, Baylor should feel very good about where they stack up against the bubble, but KSU has some work to do. Sure, they currently sit on top of the conference, but they’d be well advised to avoid any future home losses, and to pick up a few on the road as well.
