The college basketball season continues to drip away, with the middle third of February underscoring how little time there is for teams to make a move. The power conference teams have no more than seven games left before their conference tournaments. The smaller conference teams have no more than five or six games before they enter the pressure of do-or-die basketball. Many different teams are fighting for many different goals. What about the top five teams, the ones best positioned for a number one seed in March Madness?
1. Villanova Wildcats
The Wildcats didn’t lose this past week, so they get to stay on top of the mountain. That’s very conceptually simple. This is the most certain top seed on the board because Kansas and Baylor are fighting for positioning and could knock each other off that perch. Gonzaga is one loss away from no longer being a top seed. Villanova can probably lose two more games and still feel very confident about getting the top seed in the East. The Wildcats have done that much good work over the course of the college basketball season and have given themselves that much of a cushion.
2. Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks did lose last week, but Baylor also lost, and moreover, West Virginia also stumbled in the Big 12. Kansas is therefore still a top-three team. Some will debate if Gonzaga should be second. Two points on that: First, Gonzaga has to beat Saint Mary’s on Saturday, February 11, in order to deserve that distinction. Second, Gonzaga is one loss away from falling out of the top four. The same can’t necessarily be said for Kansas, given the strength of the Big 12 Conference. As long as the Jayhawks are leading the Big 12 (which they are right now), they should get the benefit of the doubt. Gonzaga plays in a very weak conference, with Saint Mary’s being its only real form of high-level competition.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs
This situation is really not all that different from what it once was. However, if the Zags are trending in a direction on the big board, it’s higher rather than lower, because Kansas and Baylor have both lost within the past week. If Kansas and Baylor lose another time later this college basketball season, it is possible to imagine a scenario in which Gonzaga loses once but still hangs onto the top seed in the West Region. That’s not a likelihood, but it could creep into the conversation. Gonzaga’s win over Arizona could still make the difference and enable GU to be the top seed in the West, but Baylor might also have a claim to that top seed.
The Bulldogs last tough test of the regular season comes on Saturday when they visit No. 20 Saint Mary’s. The Gaels enter the contest on a seven-game winning streak and will attempt to be the first team to knock off the Bulldogs this college basketball season.
4. Baylor Bears
The Bears lost to Kansas State, but with Kansas losing to Iowa State, the Bears are still in the hunt for the Big 12 title. Accordingly, they are also still in the hunt for a number one seed. If Gonzaga loses and as long as the top team in the ACC doesn’t make a very strong charge, Baylor is still well positioned to get a top seed and finish in the top four.
5. Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats are not playing well, and they lost to Oregon last weekend. Why are the Ducks not here? Simple: They lost to UCLA on Thursday, giving up a 19-point lead on the road. Arizona moves into Oregon’s spot. Why is North Carolina not here? The Tar Heels lost to Duke on Thursday. Why is Louisville not here? The Cardinals lost to Virginia on Monday. This is a very fluid spot, where no one is making a strong statement and is locking down the position of being the top number two seed on the board. This is perhaps the best argument for Gonzaga and Baylor to remain top seeds: The teams below them aren’t making a big push.
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