The Arizona Wildcats won the Pac-12 South Division championship in 2014 and seemed to have a very bright future, but after two largely miserable seasons, the Wildcats are wondering how they can make the journey up the standings in the division. They were at rock bottom last season and narrowly avoided losing 10 games by winning their rivalry game against Arizona State. Arizona was crushed by injuries a season ago, but even then, a 3-9 record should not happen for a team which was so recently in a very strong position under a nationally respected head coach, Rich Rodriguez. How will this program respond to a very urgent situation in 2017?
How Did They End 2016
The Wildcats did beat Arizona State to salvage at least something from their season, but before that, Arizona lost to Oregon State, a team which went 0-9 in the Pac-12 in 2015. That loss to the Beavers confirmed how far Arizona had fallen. Oregon State does not have a lot of speed, and Rodriguez has been very clear about recruiting speed to Tucson, but the Beavers trampled the Wildcats anyway. Nothing Arizona did worked for any prolonged period of time last season, beyond that one offensive explosion against an Arizona State team whose defense cratered at the end of the 2016 season.
Offseason Changes
Three of the team’s top four receivers from 2016 are gone, and all of the team’s best tacklers at linebacker have also left the program. Two whole units will receive radical makeovers – the fact that Arizona was just 3-9 last season might mean that replacing people is a positive, not a negative. Nevertheless, Arizona does have a lot to replace, marking a situation defined by uncertainty. The Wildcats need to ensure that this process of transition enables the good to replace the bad. If the bad is being replaced by more bad players, nothing will meaningfully improve in Tucson.
Team X-Factor
Drew Dixon and Bryce Gilbert are freshmen receivers. Given all the limitations on defense, Arizona will need players on offense to compensate. Dixon and Gilbert need to help quarterback Brandon Dawkins, who can’t think he has to make plays all by himself to carry this team. He needs support from his pass catchers, most of which will be new. Dawkins is also a player who puts his body at risk on many plays. A quarterback cannot do that – he has to know when to slide out of bounds and live for the next play. Getting more help from his receivers will enable Dawkins to make better decisions because he will trust his teammates more.
What To Expect From The Wildcats This Year
Arizona was awful last year, and it was certainly beaten up by injuries, so this year, improvement is likely. The question is how much? The Wildcats have too many uncertainties on defense for anyone to think that they can win eight or more games. That is not very likely. However, modest improvements on that side of the ball, combined with a healthy Dawkins, can reasonably create a three-game jump.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 3-9
2015: 7-6
2014: 10-4
2013: 8-5
2012: 8-5
Schedule & Outlook
Arizona’s schedule doesn’t look too challenging, but you have to keep in mind that they’re not a very good team right now. With some luck, they’re a borderline bowl team. Without it, they’re sub .500.
They start the season with back-to-back home games against Northern Arizona and Houston. The second game will be a real measuring stick game for them. From there, they go to UTEP before coming home to host Utah.
One thing to note with Arizona is that the back end of their schedule is road heavy. Four of their final six are on the road. If things start to go sour for them, RichRod could find himself on the hot seat and the team might not win any of those road contests.
Arizona will hardly be great – the program needs multiple years to contend for division championships – but as long as the Wildcats get a modest amount of injury luck, they should be able to go 6-6 and make a bowl game, which is what the 2017 season has to produce. Anything less would be a failure.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 5.5
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