The Arkansas State Red Wolves have developed a number of specific capacities and tendencies in recent years. Some of them are inconvenient and uncomfortable, but most of them are good. This program is a survivor in college football, and 2016 showed why. The bad news is that Arkansas State has some difficult obstacles to overcome in 2017. The good news is that this program is used to overcoming obstacles. We’ll soon see what’s in store for the Red Wolves in 2017.
How Did They End 2016
Arkansas State often starts seasons poorly in September. The Red Wolves have stumbled in the first month off the season in both 2015 and in 2016. Last year, Arkansas State even lost to a lowly FCS team, Central Arkansas, to fall to 0-4 on the season. However, if Arkansas State has trouble in September, it has just as much success in October and November. Arkansas State did not lose a game in either month in 2015, and in 2016, it was nearly as good. The Red Wolves lost only once in the final two months of the season. They again won the Sun Belt Conference championship. What is fascinating about Arkansas State in 2016 is that it won with defense. The Red Wolves did not allow more than 26 points in any of their last nine games, including their Cure Bowl win over UCF. In 2015, the Red Wolves’ late-season surge was powered by an offense which scored over 40 points in most of its October and November wins. This program simply does what it takes to win in a given season, though the style and flow of the season might be different when viewed up close.
Offseason Changes
Arkansas State had five veteran starters on its 2016 offensive line, and they are all gone. As good as the defense became last season, no football team can realistically survive very long if it doesn’t have a good offensive line. As a whole, this team is tied for the fewest returning starters in the nation (according to Phil Steele). You can’t realistically lose that many regulars and expect to have smooth sailing. Much of the offseason attention on this team has been focused on making sure that its line is equipped and taught well enough to compete at a high level on Saturdays. We’ll find out right off the bat if they’re able to when they visit Lincoln, Nebraska.
Team X-Factor
Arkansas State grabbed a few transfers – Jaypee Philbert from Iowa State and Marvis Brown from the junior college ranks – to fortify that hollowed-out offensive line. If these outsiders can come into Jonesboro, Arkansas, and perform right away, the team could stabilize at its weakest position and come together nicely.
What To Expect From The Red Wolves This Year
The month of September involves non-conference games, and Arkansas State likes to challenge itself for non-conference games, which is why the team usually starts slowly. Expect a brutal non-conference season but a strong Sun Belt season. A 7-1 Sun Belt mark will win the league, while 6-2 will put the Red Wolves in an uncertain position.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 8-5
2015: 9-4
2014: 7-6
2013: 8-5
2012: 10-3
Schedule and Outlook
The Red Wolves start the season with a couple of very challenging games. They’ll go on the road to Nebraska and then come home to Miami. After that, they’ll host Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which is an opponent that offers much less resistance.
The non-conference season will likely generate three losses – Miami, Nebraska and SMU are all better than Arkansas State. The question will be if the offensive line can be consistent enough to lead ASU to a 7-1 Sun Belt record. That’s probably asking too much. If the line had at least two returning starters, other gaps could be filled in more readily. Having to replace all five starters probably means a 6-2 Sun Belt record, which means a 7-5 record through 12 games. That being the case, eight seems like too high of a number to reach. This team has reached eight wins in five of their last six seasons, but this year they’ll be under that number.
Regular Season Win Prediction: Under 7.5
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