The California Golden Bears had a very evident strength and an equally visible weakness the past few seasons. The administration saw how stagnant and weak their situation was, but the problem is that university officials waited until January to make a change. This reduced the pool of available and attractive candidates for a new coach. Nevertheless, a page was turned, and now Cal can start fresh. The program needs a new energy and philosophy, but the attempt to rebuild will probably be a long-term project instead of a quick fix.
How Did They End 2016
The Golden Bears did beat UCLA at the end of their season, but they still couldn’t figure out Stanford. They got crushed by Washington. They didn’t have enough defense to make a bowl game. The season didn’t necessarily lose steam, because it was never particularly strong, with the single exception of a win over Utah which changed the Pac-12 South race. In that one game, the Golden Bears’ defense made a lot of key plays, but it was simply an aberration in the larger run of the 2016 season. The defense was never consistent in 2016 except when it was consistently awful. Defensive backs had no chance against elite receivers. Linebackers were constantly out of position in terms of filling gaps, making tackles, and covering extra pass catchers in spread formations. The offense was legitimately solid, but with the sole exception of the Utah game, the Bears were lost in any game in which the offense didn’t score a ton of points.
Offseason Changes
Head coach Sonny Dykes, who never paid much attention to defense and never figured out how to field a better defensive unit, was sacked in January. Justin Wilcox replaced him and hired coordinators Tim DeRuyter (defense) and Beau Baldwin (offense). The offense will probably have a similar feel to what it had under Dykes. Baldwin believes in an aggressive passing game from his days at Eastern Washington of the Football Championship Subdivision. It’s on defense where the true changes must occur in order for this program to rebound. A big problem is that DeRuyter – who coached Von Miller at Texas A&M and did well enough to earn a head coaching job at Fresno State – could not teach defense very well at Fresno State. His last few defenses collapsed in a manner similar to what happened at Cal. Being a coordinator enables DeRuyter to focus on defense instead of running a whole team, but his career is not at a high point right now.
Team X-Factor
Raymond Davison and Davante Downs at linebacker need to grow and develop under DeRuyter and Wilcox – they have shared responsibility for the pass and the run, and are therefore nerve centers of the defense. If they do not improve, it’s hard to see how the whole team will get better.
What To Expect From The Golden Bears This Year
The Pac-12 North has generally gotten better, but Cal is the one team which has not only gotten worse, but has dropped substantially. It seems as though the Golden Bears have been left behind by the rest of the division. The new coaching staff might rebuild the program, but they will need more than one season in which to do it, and probably more than two.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 5-7
2015: 8-5
2014: 5-7
2013: 1-11
2012: 3-9
Schedule & Outlook
Cal will get an early test right off the bat with a road trip to North Carolina. They can’t be expected to win that. They also probably won’t win their third or fourth games of the season when they host Ole Miss and USC, although Ole Miss is now suddenly beatable. Then they have to follow that up with road trips to Oregon and Washington, before coming home to host a quality Washington State Cougars program. This team could easily be 1-6 to start the season.
The Golden Bears will get roughed up by the rest of the Pac-12. They are just not in a position to contend. A 6-6 bowl season would be a great accomplishment, but this group does not seem equipped to pull that off. A 3-9 season seems like the final result given the schedule.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 3.5
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