The Florida State Seminoles are ready to return to where they know they should be. For the past two seasons, the Clemson Tigers have overtaken them as the best team in the ACC Atlantic Division and in the conference as a whole. Everyone in and around the program knows that it is not acceptable to continue to lag behind the Tigers, and since Clemson loses two-time Heisman Trophy finalist Deshaun Watson to the NFL this year, it is an absolute expectation that the Seminoles overtake Clemson for the division and conference championship, which will in turn lead to a College Football Playoff spot barring an unexpected development.
How Did They End 2016
The Seminoles lost three games – to Louisville, North Carolina and Clemson – before the stretch run of their 2016 season. They were eliminated from their division and conference and College Football Playoff races, so it was easy for them to lose faith and fade away… but they did not do that. Florida State fought hard to win the remainder of its ACC games, and it then blasted rival Florida in Game 12 of the season. When Louisville – which had beaten Florida State by 43 points – improbably lost to Kentucky in its Game 12, Florida State leapfrogged the Cardinals for a shot at the Orange Bowl against Michigan. The Seminoles, powered by elite running back Dalvin Cook, beat Michigan by a point in a thriller to cap their season in a very satisfying way. The season teetered on the brink of disaster, but Florida State did a very good job of salvaging it.
Offseason Changes
Dalvin Cook is gone. That is only one change for this roster amid others, but it is such a profound one that it will require a significant reorganization of how the offense must consider its approach. The offense needed to go through Cook last season, but now it will pivot to more of a pass-first attack under quarterback Deondre Francois. The sophomore in 2017 took way too many hits as a freshman in 2016. Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher has to figure out ways for Francois to get rid of the ball more quickly. Expect this year’s group of running backs to catch a lot of short passes in the flats to make that happen.
Team X-Factor
Derwin james, patrolling the back line of defense in the secondary, is such a centerpiece player for this team and this defense. He was injured last year, and the Seminoles sorely missed him in the shootouts they lost to North Carolina and Clemson. If he is healthy and effective, FSU will have the most important piece it needs against the better passing attacks found in the ACC.
What To Expect From The Seminoles This Year
Louisville and Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson humiliated Florida State last year, scoring 63 points. You know the Seminoles will be out for revenge, and given that they will play that game at home, they probably should win. Going to Clemson will be tough, but the Tigers don’t have Deshaun Watson this time. Florida State will probably lose its massive season opener to Alabama in Atlanta, but if the Seminoles go 10-1 the rest of the way, they will still be in the national title hunt. Other teams will need to go 13-0 to get past Florida State, because voters will not punish FSU for losing to Alabama.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 10-3
2015: 10-3
2014: 13-1
2013: 14-0
2012: 12-2
Schedule & Outlook
Florida State doesn’t get much of a chance to ease into the season but that’s what happens when you’re considered one of the top programs in the country. They’ll start things off with a titanic tilt against Alabama on a neutral site. Two weeks later they’ll host their big rival from Miami. And don’t forget that they’ll have a couple of other huge games, including a visit from the Louisville Cardinals and road trips to Clemson and to Florida.
The Seminoles will go 11-2 but get the fourth spot in the College Football Playoff. A rematch with Alabama in the semifinals, in the Sugar Bowl, is very possible.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 9.5
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