Few stories are going to pull at heartstrings or have more of an emotional weight than the Idaho Vandals this season. One of two teams that will abandon Division I-A football, the Vandals are saying goodbye to one existence as they prepare to play at a lower level, the Football Championship Subdivision, next year. How does this final FBS team shape up before it rides into the sunset?
How Did They End 2016
The Vandals were 4-4 through eight games last season. They had scored close road wins at UNLV and Lousiana Monroe, both by three points, and since the quality of their schedule was very tough in those eight games, the Vandals had to feel as though they had exceeded expectations. Their losses came to excellent teams: eventual Pac-12 champion Washington, a 10-win Troy team, Pac-12 North runner-up Washington State, and eventual Sun Belt co-champion Appalachian State.
The final four games were going to show if Idaho could maintain focus and concentration instead of being overconfident or fatigued – or both. Idaho knew that Sun Belt foe South Alabama fell victim to overconfidence. The Jaguars beat Mississippi State and San Diego State but then lost to sub-.500 teams in the Sun Belt. Idaho had to be better in those final four games.
The Vandals could not have been any better. They won all four games. They handled a road trip to Louisiana Lafayette, winning with strong defense, 23-13. They cruised past Texas State, beat South Alabama in a shootout, and then blew out Georgia State to finish 8-4. They then won the Potato Bowl in their home state against the Colorado State Rams. A 9-4 year with a bowl win represented the last great moment of Idaho’s existence as an FBS team.
Offseason Changes
Idaho loses three starters from its offensive line, multiple starters on its retooled defensive front, and two cornerbacks. That’s a lot of positional reshuffling for a team which found the right mixture of components in 2016. There is no one fix for the 2017 team – a lot of different pieces have to fall into place for the new Vandals to succeed in their last season before moving down to the FCS.
Team X-Factor
If forced to choose among the three position groups undergoing noticeable changes, it has to start with the offensive line. The basic reason for this is that Idaho won its bowl game despite giving up 50 points to Colorado State. The Vandals scored 61 points, because Matt Linehan and his backs and receivers were all outstanding. They are all back this year. As long as the offensive line is reasonably good, this offense should still hum with efficiency.
What To Expect From The Vandals This Year
Idaho just needs some help up front to make this season a reasonably good one. The Vandals are experienced at the skill positions and will score plenty of points. Moderate contributions from the offensive line, and anything better than a total collapse on defense, should put this team in position to return to a bowl game. Don’t expect 8-4, but a bowl is more likely than not.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 9-4
2015: 4-8
2014: 1-10
2013: 1-11
2012: 1-11
Schedule and Outlook
The Vandals will start the season with back-to-back home games. Their kickoff comes on August 31st when Sacramento State visits and then they’ll host UNLV 10 days later. They’ll finish up September with back-to-back road games at Western Michigan and at South Alabama. For them to hit the over, though, they’ll have to do their work in the next stretch of the season as from October 7th to November 18, four of their six games are at home. That gives them an opportunity to pick up some momentum.
Idaho will not play a murderous non-conference schedule this season. The Vandals can get to a bowl and a 6-6 record as long as they go 4-4 in the Sun Belt. That should get them where they want to go.
Regular Season Win Prediction: Over 4.5
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