The Illinois Fighting Illini are in the midst of a long-term rebuild. It does no one in the program any favors to speed up the expected rate of progress or convey the idea that a quick fix is attainable. Illinois has to patiently turn over its roster and hope that the 2018 team can lift this program back to a bowl game. Claiming that an abrupt turnaround can occur in 2017 is simply not realistic, as many of the details below will show or at least suggest.
How Did They End 2016
The Illini went 3-9 last season, and that is because two teams in the Big Ten were legitimately worse than Illinois. Rutgers was one of the worst teams the Big Ten has ever produced. The Scarlet Knights were pitiful, and Illinois was able to take advantage. Michigan State, one year removed from an appearance in the College Football Playoff, endured a massive tumble no one anticipated. The Spartans went into a state of freefall – total collapse – in the second half of the season, and Illinois was able to become part of that with a clutch last-minute win over the Spartans. Those were the only two wins in the Football Bowl Subdivision for Illinois, which got pounded in nearly every other game it played last season. Following the win over Rutgers, Illinois lost five of its last six games, the Michigan State contest being the only exception. Those five losses were expected, but the real source of alarm is that Illinois lost all of them by at least 21 points. This team was not competitive against quality opposition, underscoring the gap between the Fighting Illini and most of the Big Ten.
Offseason Changes
Carroll Phillips, Dawuane Smoot, and three other top defensive linemen are gone. There is a general sense that these were some of the better players on the Illini’s roster last season, but the always-relevant reminder about bad teams is that losing starters is not necessarily the worst thing. Bad teams exist at the collegiate level because the quality of player was not very high to begin with. If coach Lovie Smith really is improving the caliber of recruiting in Champaign, the players called upon to replace the departing starters on the defensive line will be upgrades.
Team X-Factor
Quarterback in a complicated race after transfer Wes Lunt was injured last year – someone needs to take command of the position. Young safeties will also be important, but it starts at quarterback, where this offense needs a leader who can offer enough dynamic play to begin to change this offense’s level of potency. Illinois got blown out so often last year because the offense simply couldn’t set a pace early in games or respond when the team fell behind. A good quarterback won’t fix problems overnight, but he will begin to change the way an offense operates.
What To Expect From The Fighting Illini This Year
This is simply not a quick rebuild. Illinois did not have more talent than the FBS teams it played last season, with the sole exception of Rutgers. Other Big Ten teams have gotten better, and it’s hard to say that Illinois has done the same. More hardship awaits before this project truly begins to witness considerable degrees of improvement.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 3-9
2015: 5-7
2014: 6-7
2013: 4-8
2012: 2-10
Schedule and Outlook
Illinois starts the season with a couple of cupcakes that should – emphasis on ‘should’ – get them to 2-0, but that’s not even a guarantee. They’ll host Ball State in Week 1 where they are currently favored by just over a touchdown. After that, they’ll host Western Kentucky in Week 2. However, things ramp up after that as they have to go on the road to face a tough South Florida team in Week 3 and then they move into their Big Ten schedule, which includes a visit to Ohio State.
The Illini won three games last year. Their schedule is tougher this year, with fewer opportunities to win Big Ten games. Rutgers is the only likely conference win. This looks like a 2-10 team.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 3.5
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